Optimize the business model / promote the cross regional consumption of new energy and improve the profit margin of the industry
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration officially issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, proposing that the cost of electrochemical energy storage system will be reduced by more than 30% by 2025, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to accelerate upward (from the initial stage of commercialization to the stage of large-scale development). The formal implementation plan is mainly adjusted compared with the exposure draft issued in 2021 in the following aspects:
(1) cancel the specific installation target and set the cost reduction index. The statement that the installed capacity will reach 30GW in 2025 will no longer appear, mainly because the expansion speed of the energy storage market has far exceeded the previous planning, and the installed capacity index is no longer applicable to measure the development of the energy storage market. At the same time, it is proposed that the system cost will be reduced by more than 30% by 2025, and the cost reduction index will replace the installation index, which will contribute to large-scale commercial application; (2) Put forward new business models of power side (shared energy storage) and user side (aggregate application). On the power side, encourage new energy power stations to allocate energy storage in the form of self construction, lease or purchase, so as to give play to the sharing role of “one station for multiple purposes”; On the user side, encourage uninterruptible power supply, electric vehicles, charging and replacement facilities and other user side decentralized energy storage facilities to participate in demand side response; (3) Promote the consumption of new energy across provinces and regions. Focus on the “integration of scenery, water and fire storage” in areas rich in new energy resources, promote inter provincial and inter regional transmission channels, support large-scale inter provincial and inter regional transmission and consumption of new energy, improve the utilization rate of channels and the proportion of renewable energy.
We believe that the national top-level energy storage policy has been implemented, and the policy has defined the determination, path and method of developing energy storage. New energy consumption across provinces and regions can straighten out the rebalancing of energy among regions after the proportion of wind power generation has increased significantly. How to better develop energy storage? The path pointed out by the state is to reduce costs and improve profitability (through business model innovation) on the one hand, and support the exploration of new technologies and multi time scales on the other hand, so as to provide more possibilities for the long-term development of new energy storage systems.
Make breakthroughs in multiple technologies and modes to create an important pillar in the closed loop of clean energy
(1) explore new energy storage technologies and put forward many technologies, such as sodium ion, lead carbon, liquid flow, compressed air, hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage, hot (cold) energy storage, superconductivity, supercapacitor, liquid metal, solid lithium ion, metal air battery and so on;
(2) promote multi time scale pilot, including second level, minute level, day to week, week to week, quarter to week and long-term energy storage technology. Among them, long-term energy storage (hydrogen energy storage, hot (cold) energy storage) or future focus;
(3) adopt pilot, demonstration area and other modes. Encourage all localities to carry out pilot reform of new energy storage policies and mechanisms according to local conditions, and promote the construction of new energy storage pilot demonstration projects in key regions.
Energy storage is in the early stage of development, and the post cycle elasticity will be fully enjoyed in 2022
(1) from the perspective of core growth, focus on the links with high value (the cost of battery and energy storage inverter is relatively high), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other benefits;
(2) from the perspective of certainty, the short-term profit of overseas home storage is good, and the medium and long-term focus on the quadratic curve of power side energy storage growth, Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) and other benefits;
(3) from the perspective of elasticity, companies with high proportion of energy storage revenue and good elasticity include Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) in the field of battery and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) in the field of inverter.
Risk tip: the rising cost of upstream materials will affect the downstream demand
