Event:
On February 15, 2022, the central bank released the statistical table of regional social financing scale increment in 2021.
There is a large gap in the increment of social finance among regions: among the 31 provinces and cities, 11 provinces and cities account for more than the average level, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Beijing, Sichuan, Shanghai, Hunan, Fujian, Hubei and Anhui. Among them, the incremental scale of social finance in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong exceeded 2 trillion, while that in Guangdong reached 3.78 trillion.
The average proportion of on balance sheet and off balance sheet indirect financing in the top 11 provinces and cities is 58.5%; the proportion of credit in Shanghai, Fujian and Hubei provinces and cities is relatively high, reaching 85.1%, 73.5% and 72% respectively. The off balance sheet financing shrank, and the above three provinces and cities also significantly exceeded the average level of - 7.1% in the first 11 provinces and cities. Combined with the overall data of on balance sheet and off balance sheet financing, the proportion of indirect financing in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong is relatively high.
The average proportion of corporate debt financing in the top 11 provinces and cities is 14.1% and that of stock financing is 5.1%. The proportion of corporate debt financing is relatively high in Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Shandong. The proportion of stock financing in Beijing and Shanghai exceeds the average level of the top 11 provinces and cities. Combined with the two, the comprehensive proportion of Beijing, Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively high. Combined with the overall data of new social finance in China, since the incremental scale of overall corporate bond financing contracted by 1.16 trillion yuan in 2021, the proportion in the new scale of social finance also decreased by 2.3 percentage points.
The average proportion of government debt financing in the top 11 provinces and cities is 13.7%; the proportion of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Sichuan and Shandong exceeds the average level of the top 11 provinces and cities. However, compared with the proportion of government bonds in the new national social finance, the government debt financing of these provinces and cities is not high.
Investment suggestion: from the new data of regional social finance, there are obvious differences in regional financing. The proportion of indirect financing and direct financing in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is high, and the financing demand is relatively strong. The proportion of government debt financing in the central and western regions is relatively high, and the characteristics of regional economic development are obvious. In the medium and long term, we believe that the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks whose proportion of intermediate business income continues to increase and the banks whose fundamentals continue to improve.
Risk factors: if the epidemic continues and repeats, the overall economy continues to weaken, the enterprise revenue deteriorates and the performance of the sector fluctuates.
