According to global semiconductor watch, Infineon recently issued a notice to dealers that due to the shortage of market supply and the increase of upstream costs, Infineon may brewing a new round of price increase, but the specific price increase range and category have not been disclosed yet.
Overseas leaders are expected to be optimistic, and the prosperity of power semiconductor continues. As a global leader in power semiconductors, Infineon accounted for 25% of the market in the field of MOSFET and more than 30% in the field of IGBT in 2019. Therefore, its price rise warning has important reference significance for the prosperity and direction of the industry. We have been suggesting that the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power will continue to rise, and the power semiconductor industry will continue to be in short supply. And 1) according to the Q1 market report of Fuchang electronics, the lead delivery date and price trend of power semiconductor are still upward. 2) Infineon, Italy France semiconductor and other overseas leaders are optimistic about the 22-year performance outlook. Italy France semiconductor also said that the 22-year production capacity has been sold out, and the visibility of backlog orders is about 18 months. 3) China's leading photovoltaic inverter manufacturer Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) said that the price of inverters in some overseas regions has increased by 9%, which is highly accepted by customers. It is expected that the chip tension before 22q4 is difficult to be greatly improved. Strengthen our judgment on the continued high prosperity of power semiconductor, especially IGBT and medium and high voltage MOS markets.
The wave of automobile electrification continues, the supply of distributed photovoltaic inverters is tight, and power semiconductor manufacturers usher in a dividend period. The delivery of new energy vehicles made a "good start" in January. The sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, ideal and Nezha continued to exceed expectations, meeting the year-on-year growth of 1-4 times. In addition, the target sales volume of new car manufacturers doubled in 22 years, and the wave of electrification continued. Based on the estimation of 5-6 million new energy vehicles in China in 22 years, considering the average use of 1.3 vehicles per vehicle, the demand for IGBT modules is about 7 million. The supply of Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Byd Company Limited(002594) in China is expected to be less than 4 million, and the shortage of supply will continue.
At the same time, taking advantage of the whole county to promote the east wind, distributed photovoltaic is ushering in a rapid expansion. China Power Council expects that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic inverters in China will be 90gw in 22 years, of which the new installed capacity of distributed inverters can reach 40-45gw, bringing a large number of IGBT single tube demand. Due to the lack of core of overseas leaders, the supply of IGBT is far from meeting the demand of Chinese inverter. Chinese IGBT manufacturers such as star, Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) take advantage of the lack of core to import rapidly, and will usher in a large amount in 22 years.
In addition, we need to see that not only IGBT, but also automotive electrification and photovoltaic inverter also bring demand for MOSFET, and domestic power manufacturers are continuing to usher in a dividend period.
Domestic substitution is the hardest logic for the development of power semiconductor industry. In addition to the boost of short supply, we should also see the tide of benefiting from core shortage. Chinese power device manufacturers are ushering in accelerating domestic substitution. Attention should be paid to the following major changes: 1) power semiconductor manufacturers are ushering in the rapid upgrading of product structure, and the revenue structure of high-end power devices represented by IGBT and SiC continues to increase; 2) With more advanced production lines from 6-inch to 8-inch and then to 12 inch, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) is leading the way to the 12 inch production line, which is expected to reach 60000 pieces / month in 22 years, while Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) 12 inch are also climbing, and the upgrading of production line will boost the improvement of process level and product capacity; 3) With the outbreak of downstream new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, the downstream structure of domestic manufacturers' terminals is continuously optimized, which not only helps to improve the level of profit margin, but also helps to make profits more stable.
Investment suggestion: Infineon's price rise indicates the continuation of the high outlook of the industry. Benefiting from the promotion of downstream vehicle electrification and photovoltaic in the whole county, there is strong support for demand. Moreover, we should pay more attention to the accelerated replacement process of domestic companies under this round of high-profile atmosphere, which is ushering in the continuous upgrading of product structure and customer structure. It is recommended to pay attention to Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Dongwei semiconductor, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , etc.
Risk tip: industry prosperity fluctuation risk; The risk that the ramp up of production capacity is less than expected; Risk that R & D and product progress are less than expected
