Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was + 236.54% month on month and + 236.54% year on year; The output of the five major steel enterprises was + 1.80% month on month and – 11.72% year on year; The chain comparison of steel price was -1.87%; Gross profit fell month on month. Supply picked up slightly, but still weak, and may increase after the Winter Olympics. Downstream construction is still in its infancy, and there is room for demand. Iron ore was corrected under supervision, and steel prices fell after the weakening of cost support. 12 departments have issued several policies to expand effective investment, and the demand inflection point may appear in early March, so as to verify the effect of stabilizing the economy. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price – 0.25% / – 1.32% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 3.56% / – 0.96%. Copper: copper prices remained volatile under the triple factors of foreign interest rate increase expectation, China’s stable economy and low inventory. Aluminum: the epidemic situation in Baise is well controlled, and the transportation of aluminum plants is gradually restored. The production capacity of aluminum plants in China may be reduced in the early stage of gradual resumption of production, and the new production capacity is limited under the high cost of overseas energy. The demand side is supported by stable economic expectations, and the aluminum price may fluctuate at a high level.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide was + 9.76% / + 16.30% month on month. China’s lithium supply and demand is tight. Affected by the maintenance of manufacturers in late February, the short-term supply is still tight. The demand side is driven by the large volume of new energy vehicles, and the short-term lithium price center is expected to rise steadily.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was + 0.46% / flat / + 1.00% month on month. The supply is limited by environmental protection, energy shortage and other factors. The downstream has resumed work one after another, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is OK, and the rare earth price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Under the framework of energy-saving motors and new energy, the demand for magnetic materials is gradually opened, and the industry boom is optimistic for a long time.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) (603995), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756). For industrial metals, it is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219). It is suggested to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) (002192). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111), China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) (000831).
Risk tips
Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, risk of lower downstream demand than expected, risk of covid-19 epidemic spreading beyond expected
