1. Bulk API: the upstream price of antibiotics is high, and calcium pantothenate and caffeine have increased significantly
There was no significant change in the price of antibiotics this month, and penicillin industrial salt remained at the highest price in history; Calcium pantothenate in vitamins has increased by nearly 140% in half a year due to the rise of the cost side, the reduction of the supply side and the rigidity of the demand side. The prices of other vitamins have decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the subsequent changes in the actual supply pattern of calcium pantothenate; In antipyretic analgesics, the price of caffeine rose by nearly 200% in half a year, and there were no significant changes in hormones and other bulk raw materials.
2. Characteristic API: the price of sartan is expected to continue to rise this year
The price of major cardiovascular drugs began to rise since October 2021, and the price of this month has not changed compared with the previous month. However, due to the rising cost and some enterprises gradually stop the low price strategy, the price of sartan API is expected to continue to rise; Heparin prices rose slightly this month; The price of hormone remained stable, and the price of dexamethasone remained at 7900 yuan / kg; The prices of penem, sulbactam and tazobactam APIs remained stable, basically unchanged compared with the previous month.
3. Investment suggestions:
This month, it is suggested to pay attention to the subsequent changes in the supply pattern of calcium pantothenate and caffeine, as well as the price changes of cardiovascular APIs, and be optimistic about the significant growth of China’s API industry as one of the core directions of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) new manufacturing for a long time. Through monthly tracking, in the short term, we suggest paying attention to the changes in the supply pattern of calcium pantothenate and caffeine, the reconstruction of the pattern of cardiovascular drugs in characteristic APIs and the opportunity of price recovery, such as Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Cspc Innovation Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300765) , Shijiazhuang No. 4 pharmaceutical group, Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) ; In the long run, China’s API industry is one of the core directions of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) new manufacturing. It has the dual growth of upgrading itself and undertaking the transfer of the global industrial chain. The logic of the iterative development of higher-end innovative drug cdmo is clear, the moat continues to improve, and the transition from a cyclical industry to a growing industry. 2021 is the landing period of a new round of intensive capacity construction in the API industry, It is expected to focus on contributing profits in 2022. Therefore, it is optimistic that the API industry will usher in rapid development in 2022. It is recommended to give the industry a “recommended” rating. It is recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the API new manufacturing upgrading (cdmo) logic, such as Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) .
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk of API, shutdown and rectification risk in case of emergency, and industry policy risk.
