Key investment points:
Review of the secondary market: this week (February 14-february 18, 2022), the home appliance industry fell by 1.16%, ranking 27th in the primary industry classification of CITIC, with a sluggish performance. Among the subdivided and related sectors, the zero rent and lighting electrician sectors increased significantly, up 2.71% and 1.92% respectively; The growth of home appliance parts and professional equipment manufacturing sector rose by nearly 3 percentage points compared with last week, up 1.45% this week; Small household appliances and kitchen appliances fell by 0.65% and 0.71% respectively this week, but they are still about 0.5 percentage points higher than the overall level of the household appliance industry; White electricity sector correction is more obvious, down 1.68% this week. In terms of individual stocks, among the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 47 rose, one was flat and 36 fell. Among them, Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) (19.72%), * ST shenglai (14.68%) and shenhuafa a (12.50%) ranked among the top three.
Retail market performance: in 2022w7 (2.7-2.13), the sales of China’s dual end market of all kinds of household appliances increased significantly year-on-year, of which the sales growth of online market climbed to 127.46% year-on-year, while that of offline market increased by nearly 60 percentage points. From the perspective of key focus categories, or affected by the low base in the same period of last year, the sales volume of household appliances in all categories increased to varying degrees year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume in the online market of air conditioner increased significantly by 1192.66% year-on-year, and the sales volume in the online market of clothes dryer and integrated stove also increased by about 350% year-on-year. At the same time, or affected by the continuous high price fluctuation of raw materials such as copper and aluminum, the average price of air conditioning has increased significantly.
Data tracking of raw materials and marine real estate: LME copper and aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at a high level this week, of which LME copper price remained above US $10000 / ton, while LME aluminum price continued to rise to US $3314 / ton (as of the closing on February 18); The price of rebar fell slightly compared with the previous week. As of the closing on February 18, the settlement price of shift rebar was reported as 4789 yuan / ton; The price indexes of plastic PP and ABS remained basically stable, while the prices of galvanized sheet and cold rolled sheet increased by 1.5% and 1.8% respectively; In terms of shipping, the CCFI of China’s major foreign routes decreased slightly this week compared with the previous week, of which the CCFI of the eastern and western US routes decreased by 3.88% and 4.33% respectively month on month, with a relatively obvious decline. Two weeks after the Spring Festival holiday, the national commercial housing trading market continued to warm up.
Views and investment suggestions: at the recent press conference held by the state information office, the relevant spokesman said that a larger “tax reduction and fee reduction” policy will be implemented this year, with the goal of promoting high-quality development and scientific and technological innovation of the manufacturing industry. For the household electrical appliance industry, especially for the major electrical products that have already entered the stock market, paying attention to the iteration of technological innovation and quality upgrading is the fundamental path to adapt to the market development and promote the progress of the industry, rather than continuously seeking short-term profits with the strategy of “low-end and low price” and price war. In this way, even if the industry falls into bad internal friction and affects the long-term development of enterprises, It also hinders industrial progress and market consumption upgrading. Therefore, with the subsequent implementation of “tax reduction and fee reduction” and the assistance of corresponding policies, especially under the influence of continuous fluctuations in bulk raw materials and shipping prices on the cost side of the industry, the pressure of enterprises can be effectively released. At the same time, the benign competition led by “high quality” and “scientific and technological innovation” will promote the positive development of the industry. Based on the comprehensive analysis, the home appliance industry suggests to pay attention to:
In the large household appliances sector, the product power continues to improve, and Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333. SZ) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690. SH) with significant high-end market competitiveness; In the small household appliances sector, the Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696. SH), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705. SZ) with higher landscape and growth attributes.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Continuous fluctuation of price, exchange rate and raw materials.
