Industry perspective
Accelerating the rapid development of new energy power generation and the safe and orderly development of thermal power are the only way to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. In order to promote the healthy competition of new energy power generation enterprises and promote the optimal allocation of new energy resources, we will continue to promote the market-oriented trading mechanism suitable for the participation of new energy, and use the market mechanism to guide the investment, construction, consumption and utilization of new energy.
Thermal power is expected to ensure reasonable income through the “rise and fall” power market. In the near future, strengthen the cost transmission of thermal power through coal power linkage to maintain the reasonable income of power generation; In the long term, it is expected to obtain peak shaving income through flexible resource markets such as thermal power capacity compensation mechanism and auxiliary service field.
We will continue to improve the green power trading mechanism, boost revenue and ensure the rapid development of new energy. In 2022, the scale of green power transaction is expected to gradually expand the scope of green power transaction subjects on the generation side and the scale of green power consumption on the user side, vigorously promote the green power transaction mechanism of “integration of certificate and electricity”, and continuously expand the market-oriented transaction share of green power.
The mechanism of energy storage participating in the power market has been gradually improved, and the integrated and coordinated development mechanism of source, network, load and storage has been preliminarily established. Energy storage is expected to diversify income through independent market dominant position, and pumped storage and new energy may jointly optimize the operation scheme; In the medium and long term, the increasing proportion of new energy in the spot market will promote the rapid development of independent energy storage power stations and create more space for energy storage development.
Investment advice
In 2022, the electricity price will return to the commodity attribute, the upward trend of thermal power price will be determined, and the premium of market-oriented transactions such as green power and nuclear power will rise. Focus on recommending the Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) of repairing the performance of thermal power sector and accelerating the green transformation; The nuclear power sector relies on the market-oriented electricity price to increase and thicken its performance, and the 14th five year plan relies on the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) of the rapid development of new energy.
It is suggested to pay attention to Longyuan Power, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , a new energy operator that benefits from the continuous decline of the cost of photovoltaic and wind energy per kilowatt hour and the rapid growth of green power market premium stacker; Independent energy storage operators on the grid side, which benefit from the promotion of marketization, are expected to usher in Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) growth of pumping and storage and new energy storage.
Risk tips
In the process of marketization, the progress of power marketization may be less than expected; Risks caused by high coal price and high cost; The growth rate of electricity consumption is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of insufficient consumption of new energy.
