Events
On February 19, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference. Wu Liangyou, deputy director of the disease control bureau of the National Health Commission, said that because the current situation of epidemic prevention in China is that the pressure of "foreign input" continues to increase, recently, with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. Covid-19 vaccine sequential enhanced immunization program: one is homologous enhancement, the other is heterologous enhancement, that is, the booster needle can be inoculated with the recombinant protein vaccine or Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) biological adenovirus vector vaccine of zhifeilong Kema company, and one sequential enhanced immunization can be carried out free of charge.
Key investment points
Homologous enhancement has better tolerance, but the immunogenicity, that is, the effectiveness, is weaker than heterologous sequential inoculation. At present, more than 3 billion doses of vaccines have been vaccinated in China, mainly inactivated vaccines. From the change of neutralizing antibody titer, it decreased significantly after 6 months, and a certain proportion of Omicron virus strains with high immunity have broken through infection. For example, according to the flow survey data of closely connected people in Tianjin, the breakthrough infection rates of completing basic immunization and strengthening immunization were 22.6% and 6% respectively. Therefore, in the face of covid-19 epidemic infection in many places in China, choosing sequential vaccination with higher protection rate can better control the epidemic situation. At the same time, from the clinical data, heterologous sequential immunogenicity is better than homologous enhancement. Adenovirus vector vaccine, recombinant protein vaccine and mRNA vaccine are safe, effective and well tolerated as booster needles, especially for delta or Omicron mutant strains. ① Adenovirus vector vaccine: according to the research of Zhu Fengcai and Chen Wei of Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and prevention, from the level of euvirus neutralizing antibody, 2 doses of inactivated vaccine + 1 dose of Ad5 vector vaccine > 3 doses of inactivated vaccine. Especially for the Omicron variant, kweisa ® The level of neutralizing antibody against Omicron was 6 times higher than that of inactivated vaccine and 3 times higher than that of recombinant protein vaccine.
Omicron promotes covid-19 epidemic flooding, and the short-term marginal benefit of the vaccine industry is good. Recently, Dr. Gregory, an epidemiologist, said that covid-19 virus has shown that it can spread indefinitely when it spreads across species and continues to mutate. Therefore, from the current development situation, covid-19 vaccination and oral drug reserve are the necessary prerequisites for normal exchanges among countries. At present, European and American countries have partially achieved "mass immunization" by liberalizing control and vaccination, while China can only continuously improve the protection of covid-19 vaccine to the people and the research, development and marketing of efficient covid-19 drugs under the background of not fully liberalizing prevention and control. Therefore, the covid-19 vaccine has been approved to strengthen the immunization program in sequence, It is also to cope with large export pressure. At the same time, from the performance of the vaccine sector in the past half a year, the market's expectation of the increment brought by covid-19 booster needle in the vaccine industry has been very low. At present, the valuation level of the vaccine sector only reflects the sales valuation of conventional vaccine varieties. In the short term, the approval of this sequential booster needle is marginally favorable in the short term.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, with reference to influenza vaccine, there is still a certain market for the approved new booster vaccine in the future. At present, 460 million people in China have been vaccinated with booster shots. If the purchase price is 30 yuan / shot, the incremental demand for booster shots is still 8-9 billion yuan. In the medium and long term, for the vaccine industry, it still depends on the progress of long-term core competitiveness such as the Chinese sales of conventional vaccines, the international expansion of products and the construction progress of technical platform.
Risk factors: the sales of conventional vaccines are less than expected; Poor clinical data of mRNA vaccine; Policy risk.
