\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556)
Event: on February 21, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021.
Key investment points
The performance express deviates from the upper limit of the performance forecast, and the leader of slicing equipment benefits from the high prosperity of downstream photovoltaic
The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 110%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 193%, which was lower than the upper limit of performance forecast (158-178 million yuan); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 303%; Q4 in a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 259% and a month on month increase of + 61%. The substantial increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is mainly due to: (1) the rapid growth of equipment orders, and large orders reflect the market’s recognition of the company’s newly launched convertible wheelbase cutting machine in 2021h2. (2) Vajra line underwent technical transformation in 2021, from 6 lines of one machine to 12 lines of one machine. In 2021, the shipment volume will be more than 9 million kilometers, and the production capacity will reach 25 million kilometers in 2022. (3) Sapphire and other innovative businesses increased significantly, and the revenue from 2021q1-q3 reached more than 70 million yuan. (4) Among the three chip OEM services, Tongwei Yongxiang 5GW project reached full production in November 2021, contributing revenue.
The demand for cutting equipment and consumables is increasing, and Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) technical advantages are significant, enjoying a high market share
Under the trend of large size, the core technical difficulties of slicing link lie in equipment compatibility and silicon wafer yield. In 2020, the company launched a new generation of slicing equipment with adjustable wheelbase for large-size silicon wafer cutting, and put forward corresponding solutions for possible semi wafer process. The company feeds back the diamond line business through cutting equipment, forming a development pattern of “equipment + material” two wheel drive. (1) Equipment: slicing is the cost reduction point of n-type silicon wafer. N-type silicon wafer can produce sufficient competitiveness only when it reaches 120 microns. The company’s 120 micron half rod and half wafer equipment will form a breakthrough in 2022. The company has arranged the cutting process of half bar and half piece to solve the problem of difficult cutting and high fragment rate in the process of large-size slicing. The 120 micron half bar and half piece equipment is being converted from small batch to large batch. (2) Consumables: after multi line transformation in 2021, the production capacity will reach 25 million km in 2022, and the gross profit margin will increase from 33% in 2020 to about 37% in 2021. It is expected to increase slightly in 2022.
Enter the chip OEM, release the performance flexibility, specialization and division of labor, and improve the efficiency of the industrial chain
Facing the two types of customers of silicon chip factory and battery chip factory, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ‘s chip OEM business realizes cost reduction, efficiency increase and quality improvement through professional division of labor, and helps customers operate light assets at the same time. The chip foundry will expand the production according to the order. 6Gw chip capacity will be added in 2022q2 and 10GW capacity will be added in 2022q3. A total of 21gw capacity will be formed by the end of Q3. In 2023, the chip production capacity will be increased by 14gw to 35gw. The profit source of chip OEM service is OEM fee + surplus silicon wafer sales. For Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , chip OEM business can better convert the company’s R & D into revenue and profit and fully enjoy the technical dividend.
As a leading company in the PV industry, the company has a high profit rating and a high profit forecast; At the same time, develop the chip OEM business, which is expected to usher in new performance growth points. We maintain the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 170 / 3.5 / 540 million, and the corresponding PE is 60 / 29 / 19x respectively, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the industry is affected by policy fluctuations, market competition risk and business expansion is less than expected.
