\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021: it is expected to achieve a revenue of 45.131 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%; The net profit was rmb3.304 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of rmb2.004 billion. Among them, Q4 expects a net profit of 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.87%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.162 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 253%, which falls in the performance forecast center.
In addition, the company announced the operating data of January 2022. The company achieved express revenue of 3.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%, completed business volume of 1.329 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4.84%, single ticket revenue of 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.55% and a month-on-month increase of 8.40%.
With the increase of unit price and the improvement of competition pattern, Q4 performance increased significantly: in 2021, the company continued to promote comprehensive digital transformation, increased investment in core resources, and made significant progress in core indicators of service quality such as timeliness. It shows that the company has gradually abandoned the “price for quantity” strategy and paid more attention to the balance between service quality, profitability and market share. Since entering the peak season of Q4, under the strict supervision of policies, Tongda department and other franchise express companies have issued price increase notices for three consecutive times. The price war has slowed down significantly. Q4 net profit has increased by nearly 198.87% year-on-year and 269% month on month. The profitability has been significantly repaired year on year and month on month. From the perspective of single ticket income, since the second half of the year, the company’s business strategy has focused more on price, and the unit price has become positive year-on-year, and has maintained positive growth for six consecutive months. 10. In November and December, the unit price reached 2.29 yuan, 2.59 yuan and 2.50 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.86%, 12.32% and 13%, leading the whole industry. In January 2022, the company’s single ticket revenue was 2.72 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.55%. If the adjustment of rookie wrapping business settlement mode is excluded (from the original settlement with franchisees to direct settlement with headquarters), the single ticket revenue in January was 2.62 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.34%, an increase of 29.7% compared with the low point of 2.02 yuan in July 2021. It is expected that in 2022, with the vicious competition in the industry curbed and the steady growth of demand, leading enterprises will pay more attention to the balance between profit and market share, the single ticket price is expected to continue to rise, and the profitability may continue to be repaired.
International aviation business helps the company open up growth space: affected by the epidemic, the international air cargo business has maintained a high momentum in the past two years. In 2020, Yuantong Airlines achieved a revenue of 1.193 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.16 yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 200%. The international freight forwarding business achieved a revenue of 5.048 billion Hong Kong dollars and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 252 million Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 866.37%, The gross profit margin is 23.8% and 16%. On the one hand, it is due to the strong demand for cross-border e-commerce under the epidemic. On the other hand, the demand for China’s high-end manufacturing to expand its business overseas is increasing, and the international express business will increase accordingly. The company has actively arranged markets such as Southeast Asia, has 10 cargo planes, has preliminarily completed the layout of international express delivery, and has become the only express delivery enterprise with its own air freight company in Tongda department. The company is expected to continuously improve the basic capacity of international air cargo, improve the utilization and operation efficiency of the company’s own aviation, cut into the 100 billion track of cross-border logistics and open up the space for growth.
Profit forecast: the company continues to promote digital transformation, increase the layout of air cargo and international business on the basis of improving service quality and operation efficiency, and there is still room for single ticket cost reduction. With the implementation of strict regulatory policies, price competition has been eased and performance is expected to recover. It is estimated that the net profit will be 2.899 billion yuan and 3.465 billion yuan respectively in 22 and 23 years, yoy will be + 39% and yoy + 19% respectively, and EPS will be 0.84 yuan and 1.01 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding P / E of A-share price is 20 times and 16 times, maintaining the buying investment proposal.
Risk tips: intensified market competition, lower cost and higher efficiency than expected, instability of franchisee online stores, etc.
