\u3000\u3000 Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) (000591)
Key investment points:
Green power operation and maintenance leading enterprise
The company is engaged in the investment and operation of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power station and the manufacturing and production of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery modules. It is a listed company controlled by China energy conservation and environmental protection group. Since its backdoor listing in 15 years, the company has steadily promoted the construction and M & A of photovoltaic power stations, holding more than 4gw photovoltaic power stations, and the holding scale and gross profit margin rank in the forefront of the photovoltaic industry. The performance continued to grow steadily and the profitability was strong. From 2015 to 2020, the five-year CAGR of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.81%.
Affordable Internet access drives terminal demand, and carbon emission rights promote green power trading
With the development trend of carbon neutralization policy and affordable Internet access in major economies around the world, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a new growth stage. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the global photovoltaic new installed capacity will reach 1050 ~ 1295gw from 2021 to 2025, and the new installed capacity in China will reach 355 ~ 440gw from 2021 to 2025. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the global installed capacity will increase by 100.76% ~ 147.61% compared with the 13th Five Year Plan period, which will drive the construction of terminal photovoltaic power stations. It is expected that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach more than 200GW in 2022, and the new installed capacity in China will reach more than 75gw. The further promotion of carbon emission trading will also enhance the earnings of green power enterprises. If the company's photovoltaic power stations are all involved in carbon emission trading, the annual income from the sale of CCER can reach 310 million yuan.
It is planned to invest in the construction of 3gw photovoltaic power stations every year and greatly expand the production capacity of photovoltaic modules
The company continues to promote high-quality investment, construction and acquisition of photovoltaic power stations, and promote the capacity construction of photovoltaic cell modules. At present, the company has a capacity of 5.19gw photovoltaic power station, 1.2gw high-efficiency single crystal cells and 2gw high-power modules. We believe that by the end of 2025, the company can realize the expansion of the cumulative installed capacity of 20GW photovoltaic power station, 20GW high-efficiency battery and 4.5gw high-power module capacity, and the continuous expansion of operation and production scale, so as to improve the development space of the company.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.859/8.166/10.602 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 29.29% / 19.06% / 29.83%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.540 billion yuan, 2.013 billion yuan and 2.743 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49.78% / 30.73% / 36.27%, EPS will be 0.51/0.67/0.91 yuan / share, three-year CAGR will be 38.84%, and the corresponding PE will be 18x / 14x / 10x respectively. According to the valuation of comparable companies, we give the company 19 times PE in 22 years, with a target price of 12.73 yuan and a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The progress of construction in progress and M & A of photovoltaic power station is less than expected; The capacity expansion progress of batteries and components is less than expected; The new installed capacity downstream of photovoltaic is less than expected; Changes in abnormal and harsh climate and environment; The repeated epidemic situation will affect the construction progress; The long-term delay of the original power station subsidy arrears led to the lack of cash flow of the company.
