\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
Q1 cultural paper's price rise was implemented, its profitability was restored, its cost control ability was excellent, the "buy" rating was maintained, and the supply and demand pattern of 2022q1 cultural paper was improved. The price rise letter issued in the early stage was successfully implemented, and its profitability is expected to gradually recover. It is expected that the cultural paper industry will return to normal and steady development, the factors affecting the sharp fluctuation of short-term prices will be weakened, the profit forecast for 2021 will remain unchanged, and the profit forecast for 2022-2023 will be lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be RMB 2.992/2.925/3.077 billion (originally RMB 2.992/3.580/4.023 billion), and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.11/1.09/1.14, The current share price corresponding to PE is 10.9/11.2/10.6 times. Guangxi projects have been put into operation, Laos forest land has been continuously constructed, and the integration of Forest Pulp and paper has been continuously improved. In the future, we will continue to control the cost, coexist with a variety of power generation methods, realize flexible conversion between production lines according to the cycle, be optimistic about the development of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Cultural paper sales are in line with expectations, the supply and demand pattern is improved, the price rise is implemented, and the profitability is expected to recover. In 2022, Q1 company's cultural paper sales are in line with expectations. With the continuous reduction of imported paper and the continuous increase of cultural paper export, the price rise of cultural paper has been gradually implemented and began to be transmitted to the downstream. With the continuous development of cultural paper bidding in spring, the demand side of cultural paper has recovered, but the cost of supply side has increased, resulting in the low rate of resumption of production and work of small factories, and the slow recovery of production capacity of small factories affected by all aspects. At present, the profitability of large factories is gradually improving, and there is still room for rise. The industry maintains steady development, and the price of cultural paper is expected to rise steadily in the future.
The proportion of medium and high-end paperboard is expected to improve the profitability of paperboard. With the continuous operation of Guangxi projects and the production of new fiber raw materials, the proportion of medium and high-end paperboard is increasing. At present, the proportion of medium and high-end products of the company is between 60% and 70%, Mainly due to the diversification of raw materials; Guangxi projects have been put into operation one after another. The large volume of cultural paper and household paper is conducive to developing the market. The production of pulp is expected to drive the growth of the company from the cost side. In 2022, after climbing the production capacity of chemical pulp and chemical mechanical pulp, it is expected to further improve the self-sufficiency ratio of pulp. The forest area of Laos is increasing, and the integration level of pulp and paper is improved, which is expected to reduce the cost of raw materials and increase profits.
Take multiple measures to deal with the fluctuation of energy and raw materials and improve the ability of cost control
Multiple ways of power generation coexist, and the production lines can be changed flexibly. The company's main measures in the future include: (1) reducing the impact of energy price fluctuations. In the future, the company is expected to adopt alkali recovery power generation, garbage power generation, new energy power generation and other ways. (2) According to the periodic and reasonable allocation of production, realize the flexible conversion between production lines.
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the company's production capacity is less than expected.
