\u3000\u3000 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) (300999)
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 226.23 billion (+ 16.1%), net profit attributable to parent company of 4.13 billion (- 31.1%), net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company of 5 billion (- 43.2%), and net interest rate of 1.8% (- 1.3pcts). Among them, the decline of non net profit deducted by the company exceeds the decline of net profit, which is mainly due to the reduction of non recurring losses generated by derivative financial instruments that do not fully meet the requirements of hedge accounting. Q4 cost pressure still exists, which restricts performance. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 63.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 15.6% and a month on month increase of + 16.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 50.5% and a month on month increase of - 36.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 66.8% and a month on month increase of + 242.6%.
The revenue growth was stable, and the sales volume of medium and high-end products was blocked. The company's kitchen food revenue increased and its profit fell, mainly due to: 1) the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials, and the company's price increase policy failed to completely alleviate the cost pressure; 2) Under the influence of intensified market competition and weak consumption, the sales volume of medium and high-end retail products of the company has been impacted; 3) The catering channel was restored, and the proportion of product sales of catering channels with low gross profit margin increased. In terms of feed raw materials and oil technology business, benefiting from the rise of market conditions, the company has achieved a double increase in revenue and profit. Among them, the profit of oil technology business has increased greatly, but the purchase volume and pressing volume of soybean have decreased year-on-year, and the pressing profit has decreased.
Multi heads go hand in hand to create a new driving force for performance growth. The company actively develops new high growth and complementary businesses such as central kitchen, soy sauce, vinegar and yeast, effectively reduces production, logistics and marketing costs and creates profit increment while continuously expanding kitchen food categories. Among them, in terms of soy sauce business, the company plans to adopt dual brand and dual strategy strategic development. Taizhou Wanzhuang soy sauce phase II project is under preparation, and the production capacity is expected to double after completion. Yangjiang soy sauce is also under preparation and plans to produce Cantonese soy sauce. For the central kitchen project, Hangzhou factory is expected to have output in March, which is expected to provide a new driving force for the company's performance growth.
Profit forecast: after adjusting the previous profit forecast, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 22 and 23 will be RMB 4.13/70.3/87.4 (previously 48.9/77.0/92.3) billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of - 31.1% / 70.0% / 24.4%, corresponding to PE of 74.6/43.9/35.3, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, industry competition intensifies, capacity construction is less than expected, and new business expansion is less than expected.
