\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Event overview. On February 22, the company released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15%; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.52%.
The annual performance grew rapidly, and the price increase + Spring Festival holiday drove the high growth of income in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15%, equivalent to 2.103 billion yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of + 28.33%. In the fourth quarter, the revenue side achieved rapid growth. Thanks to the price increase brought by the price increase and the wrong period of the Spring Festival, Q4 began to prepare goods for the Spring Festival. On a quarterly basis, Qiaqia’s revenue side fell by 12.70% year-on-year in the second quarter due to the impact of the decline in market demand and community group purchase, but it recovered rapidly quarter by quarter in the third and fourth quarters. Thanks to the marginal recovery of offline demand, melon seeds have the attribute of high viscosity consumption, as well as the deep cultivation and polishing of leading enterprises in products and channels, so as to build the cornerstone of long-term development.
The annual profit increased rapidly and the net interest rate increased steadily. In 2021, the company realized a profit of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.52%, equivalent to Q4, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.97%. The net interest rate of Q4 attributable to the parent company was 15.97%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.83pct, mainly due to the obvious cost control of Q4 company last year, and the sales expense rate was only 6.84%. From the perspective of the whole year, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company has increased steadily since the second quarter. It is expected that the price increase will drive the subsequent profit margin to continue to improve. In 2021, the company realized a net profit of 800 million yuan with non deduction, a year-on-year increase of + 16.15%. The core of the difference between the net profit with deduction and the net profit attributable to the parent comes from government subsidies.
It is expected that the income in January will be relatively stable during the wrong period of the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the performance from February to March and the release of price increase dividends. Due to the wrong date of this year’s Spring Festival, the Spring Festival has less than 10 days of goods preparation season. It is expected that the year-on-year level in January will be roughly the same. In the later stage, the sales increment from February to March will be driven by the expansion of channel ends and the promotion of key products. The purchase cost of melon seeds at the cost side has increased slightly. It is expected that the price increase of the company will fully cover the cost increase and bring a certain profit increment.
The three curves jointly contribute to the increment, and millions of terminals expand steadily. On the product side, the cultivation of three product curves is clear. The first curve melon seeds will develop along the route of red bag quality improvement + blue bag flavor innovation + kuizhen high-end upgrading. The second curve nuts will grasp the core single products of nuts every day and actively expand their advantages in the offline market. The third curve snacks will actively expand the product matrix and demand extension mergers and acquisitions. Under the synchronous development of the three curves, It is expected to reach the target of 10 billion tax in three years. On the channel side, the company established the goal of one million terminals in three years by the end of 2020. With the assistance of digital terminals, the company will effectively strengthen the control of terminals, and will effectively ensure the achievement of the goal of the channel side under the condition of exploring new channels and promoting the sinking of the market.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize a revenue of 5.985/7260/8607 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2% / + 21.3% / + 18.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 / 1117 / 1329 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.5% / + 20.1% / + 19.0%, EPS of 1.83/2.20/2.62 yuan and corresponding PE of 29x / 24x / 21x respectively. The company’s valuation is basically the same as the current expected valuation of the snack food sector in 2022 of 25X (wind consensus expectation, arithmetic mean method), but considering that the company continues to carry out product innovation and channel expansion, and will fully benefit from the release of price increase dividends in the short term, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price increase affects the downstream sales volume, the upstream cost fluctuates sharply, food safety risks, etc.
