\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual performance express, which realized an operating revenue of 5.99 billion yuan (+ 13.2%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan (+ 15.5%); Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.1 billion yuan (+ 28.3%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 340 million yuan (+ 22%) in a single quarter, which was in line with market expectations.
Melon seeds + nuts double wheel drive, successfully creating a large single product. 1. Red and blue bag melon seeds develop together to form positive feedback channels. The traditional large magenta bag melon seeds still maintain their advantages under the joint drive of product quality upgrading and channel intensive cultivation optimization. Blue bag melon seeds are featured with innovative taste and highlight the leisure snack attribute of melon seeds. With the continuous enrichment of product taste, large single products are expected to continue in large quantities. 2. Nuts strongly support the second growth curve and build a product matrix around daily nuts. Small blue bag probiotics daily nuts and daily nut oatmeal have been successfully introduced into the terminal. Gift boxes perform well during the Spring Festival and will continue to grow in the future. 3. The sales team was adjusted to two teams, namely, melon seeds and nuts, which were responsible for their respective categories, breaking the situation that the growth rate of melon seeds and nuts could not be achieved at the same time in the past.
The smooth conduction of melon seed price increase will release profit elasticity. Since October 2021, the company has adjusted the product price and raised the price of sunflower seeds, pumpkin seeds and small and fragrant melon seeds by 8% – 18%, mainly due to the rise in the prices of raw materials and packaging materials. The company gives some original price subsidies to dealers, and the adjustment of price system is smooth, which has been transmitted to terminals and stores. In addition, the unit price of melon seed products is low, and consumers have a good acceptance of the price increase.
Organizational structure adjustment + channel force + equity incentive, with sufficient motivation for long-term growth. 1. Change the organizational structure, adjust the business division to category center, and delegate the power of the business division to category Bu; The cooperation efficiency between category Bu and sales Bu is improved to promote benign coordination between departments. 2. For the common development of all channels, it is planned to increase the number of terminals to 1 million in the next 3-5 years, seize the development opportunities of new channels such as community group purchase, and consolidate the advantages of channels. Expand channels through the digital marketing platform. At present, 120000 terminals have been incorporated into the channel intensive cultivation system. 3. The sixth phase of employee stock ownership plan will be implemented, and the participants will be no more than 213 senior executives and key employees, with an individual contribution of no more than 30.6 million yuan. The continuous implementation of equity incentive, with a wide range of incentives, helps to fully stimulate the motivation of employees and is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 930 million yuan, 1.1 billion yuan and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 183 yuan, 218 yuan and 2.60 yuan respectively, with the corresponding dynamic PE being 29 times, 25 times and 21 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion is not as expected; The price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply; Food safety risk
