\u3000\u3000 Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) (600966)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021, and it is expected to achieve a revenue of 16.276 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.44%; The net profit deducted from non profit was RMB 1.722 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 109.49%, and the performance was lower than expected. Among them, Q4 expected revenue of 4.34 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 6.76%; The net profit loss was 212 million yuan, deducting 201 million yuan of non net profit loss, which was mainly caused by the weak demand, the decline of white cardboard price and the increase of raw material cost, energy cost and transportation cost.
In 2021, the net profit increased by more than 100% year-on-year: in 2021, with the promotion and implementation of the two major policies of China's waste prohibition order and plastic prohibition order, the volume and price brought by the high scenery of the industry increased at the same time. The company actively developed high-grade food cards such as "paper instead of plastic" and "white instead of gray", paper cup base paper, coated paper cup paper, anti-counterfeiting cigarette bags, blister paper and other new products to meet the differentiated needs of special customers. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, after the price of white cardboard reached a historical high of 11000 / ton in late March 2021, it began to fall due to changes in the market environment such as weak demand and rising raw material costs. The average price of white cardboard in the whole year was 7397 yuan / ton, an increase of 23.12% year-on-year, which helped the company's annual performance increase significantly.
The single quarter performance of 21q4 is under pressure: Quarterly, with the superposition of multiple factors such as the recurrence of the global epidemic and the rise of bulk commodities, there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the industry. The downstream manufacturers have plenty of goods and overdraw the market demand in advance. The price of 21q2 fell rapidly. Until the end of July, the price of white card paper fell to 7000 yuan / ton. The prosperity of 21q3 and Q4 in the downstream printing and packaging industry is poor Affected by the obstruction of export market and the decline of export orders of manufacturing industry, the domestic demand and export of white cardboard market are insufficient, the paper price continues to decline slightly, and the white cardboard market price returns to stability near the end of the year. As of December 31, the average price of white cardboard was 6010 yuan / ton, down 15.6% year-on-year. In addition, the price of raw material wood pulp rose and fell throughout the year, but it is still at a high level. The prices of 21q4 broad-leaved pulp and coniferous pulp increased by 21% and 28% year-on-year to US $605 / ton and US $770 / ton. Meanwhile, Q4 transportation costs increased significantly and commodity prices continued to rise. Taking Qinhuangdao Power Coal as an example, the average price increased by nearly 100% year-on-year and 18% month on month. On the whole, the decline in the prosperity of the industry led to the decline in the price of white cardboard and the increase in costs, which put pressure on the company's Q4 performance. As of February 18, the price of white cardboard increased by 4% compared with the beginning of the year and decreased by 23% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, the price of raw material wood pulp may continue to fluctuate at a high level, as well as the increase of transportation, energy and other costs. There is a certain support on the cost side. With the high concentration of white cardboard industry, the paper price is expected to increase steadily. Considering that the price of 21h1 paper is at a high point, it is expected that the performance of 22h1 company will still be under pressure, waiting for the recovery of 22h2 demand to drive the recovery of the company's profits.
The leading position continues to be consolidated, which is conducive to the long-term development of the company: since the Spring Festival, due to strong overseas demand, sufficient orders from paper mills, and the price of superimposed pulp and paper continues to rise, many paper enterprises frequently sent price increase letters in March, of which some manufacturers of white cardboard raised the price by 200 yuan / ton. The total capacity market share of the company and app white cardboard is about 55%. With the release of 1 million tons of white cardboard capacity in Jiangsu Bohui in the next two years and the trial operation of APP Jingui phase II expansion project with an annual output of 1.8 million tons of high-grade paperboard, the company's revenue scale and market share will increase steadily, and its bargaining power as a leader will continue to increase. In the long run, under the "replacing gray with white" and the new "plastic restriction order", the demand for white cardboard remains strong, the competition pattern continues to be optimized, and the price center and ton profit level of white cardboard are expected to improve.
Profit forecast: with the continuous promotion of the plastic restriction order, the company, as a leading enterprise of white cardboard, is expected to fully benefit in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, due to the weak demand and slow price rebound, we lowered the profit forecast for 22 and 23 years. It is expected to achieve net profits of 1.85 billion yuan and 2.175 billion yuan in 22 and 23 years (the previous value is 2.634 billion yuan and 2.898 billion yuan), and yoy increased by 8.5% and 17.6% respectively, EPS is 1.38 yuan and 1.63 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of A-Shares is 6.6 times and 5.6 times. It is recommended to maintain the investment proposal of interval operation.
Risk tips: fierce price competition, weak terminal demand, etc
