\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Event:
The company issued a performance express, realizing an operating revenue of 5.985 billion in 2021, the same as + 13.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 930 million, the same as + 15.52%; Deduct non net profit of 800 million, the same as + 16.15%; EPS1. 83 yuan / share.
Key investment points:
1. Q4 has a high income growth, and the sales of nut gift boxes for the Spring Festival are good. The company achieved a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of 28.33%, and the growth rate was higher than expected. Main reasons: 1) the Chinese New Year is early in 2022, the goods are prepared in advance during the Spring Festival, part of the income is recorded in 2021q4, and the income base is small. 2) This year, the return policy is flexible. Many consumers return home every two years. There is a strong demand for gifts. Residents’ recognition of the nutritional and health characteristics of nuts has increased, and the attributes of gifts have been enhanced. 3) Qiaqia has strong brand power, and the advantages of supermarket channel display and stacking position are prominent. Therefore, the overall Spring Festival dynamic sales are good, and the sales performance of nut gift boxes is bright. Due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the base number of Q1 last year was high, while February and March after the festival are often the off-season of sales. The growth rate of 2022q1 of the company may be under pressure in the short term. Combined with 2021q4 and 2022q1, it is expected to maintain steady growth as a whole.
2. The profit growth was accelerated, the price increase was conducted smoothly, and the strong bargaining power was demonstrated. In 2021q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.97%, and deducted a non net profit of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.17%. The growth rate was faster than that of the income side, and the benefit of price increase was obvious. In October last year, due to the rising prices of raw materials and packaging materials of upstream melon seeds and rising energy costs, the company increased the ex factory price of melon seeds series products, the second large-scale price increase since July 2018. The company has started the new procurement season of melon seeds before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the price increase can basically cover the cost increase. The vigorous sales during the Spring Festival also drives the channel inventory to return to a lower level. The price increase is transmitted smoothly, demonstrating the strong bargaining power of the company. This year, the company is expected to take advantage of the opportunity of price increase to improve the quality of red bag melon seeds, continue to promote the upgrading of high-end melon seed brands and packaging, increase brand investment and optimize product structure. In the long run, the gross profit margin of melon seed series products is expected to rise steadily.
3. The internal adjustment and external channel expansion are steadily promoted, and the long-term growth logic is determined. In the first half of last year, the company set up the internal marketing system and adjusted the internal marketing system, which is expected to effectively improve the sales efficiency of the two categories {959} in the first half of last year. The product side melon seeds category continues to develop flavored products, and new flavors appear frequently. The scope of trial sales of rattan pepper melon seeds in cities will be further expanded this year. Nut side oatmeal and probiotics are still steadily promoted, and the penetration rate and contribution income are expected to continue to increase. The channel side continues to promote the sinking of channels, improve the quality of terminal display, and develop new channels such as fruit stores and tobacco hotels. Under the guidance of the double hundred goal, the company’s terminal coverage and control are expected to continue to improve, helping the performance to maintain rapid growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) is a leading enterprise in the snack food industry, with high brand awareness and reputation, strong bargaining power and excellent anti risk ability in the face of rising costs. We expect the company’s EPS to be 1.83 yuan, 2.12 yuan and 2.43 yuan from 2021 to 2023 respectively. The corresponding PE is 29, 25 and 22. At present, it is at a low level and has investment value. It is given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk Tips 1) food safety risks; 2) The promotion of new products is less than expected; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; 4) Higher than expected cost rise; 5) Risks such as channel development falling short of expectations.
