\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) (688611)
Key investment points
The delivery and installation of Q4 power guarantee are suspended, and the revenue is expected to be deferred to Q1 for confirmation
According to the practice of power grid planning - bidding - third industry company placing orders - Installation confirmation process, more than 60% of the company's revenue over the years is concentrated in Q4 confirmation (20q4 accounts for 65% and 21q4 accounts for 62%). However, from the end of 21q3 to Q4, there is a shortage of energy supply, raw materials and some outsourced processing; At the same time, in order to ensure the power supply, the local government suspended the maintenance of substations and lines, superimposed the impact of the large-scale epidemic in Zhejiang Province at the end of last year, the installation and commissioning process of some products of the company slowed down, and the rhythm of Q4 revenue recognition was delayed. However, the power grid project involves multiple links and enterprises, and the delay period is not expected to be too long. It is expected to be installed and confirmed in Q1 in the off-season of production and energy consumption. It is expected that the revenue and performance of Q1 will increase year-on-year.
Deeply cultivate the State Grid and reclaim the South grid, and greatly speed up the expansion outside the province, exceeding expectations
The gross profit margin of the company's 21q1-3 increased significantly year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased slightly, which just confirms the investment of the company's channel expansion outside the province in sales expenses. After the listing of the company last year, the brand strength was significantly improved, and the channel expansion was strengthened. The company accelerated the laying of marketing service centers in the key areas of the two networks, gradually began to harvest the previously cultivated Jiang / Beijing / Hubei / Shanghai / Anhui / Shandong / Sichuan markets, and continued to cultivate markets outside Guangdong / Guizhou / cloud / Shanxi / Xinjiang. It is estimated that the proportion of income outside the province will increase to about 20% in 2021. At the same time, the company's key products of substation monitoring have completed the South Power Grid Technology authentication and entered the South Power Grid new technology promotion and application directory; This year, other products are expected to continue to conquer the next batch of promotion directories of the south network. At present, the intelligent demand of China Southern Power Grid in the 14th five year plan is clear. It is expected that the orders / performance of China Southern Power Grid is expected to increase significantly this year, with a significant increase in the proportion, and the early investment is about to enter the harvest period.
The new model improves the efficiency of recruitment and the relay growth of new products
The new model improves efficiency: the company's power transmission and transformation IOT sensor type represents the product, which can realize convenient online ordering in the State Grid e-commerce platform - material accessories section, and the bidding mode is greatly simplified. New product development direction: the company's product technology extension has strong expansibility. It has been distributed for many years and extended to intelligent monitoring products in power transmission and distribution and other fields. It is expected to accelerate the application in pumped storage / battery monitoring and other fields, broaden the growth extension and shape a new growth curve in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 101 / 162 / 228 million, corresponding to 33.71/21.04/14.93 times of the current share price PE. Maintain buy rating..
Profit forecast and Valuation: the intelligent investment in power grid fails to meet expectations, and the company's business expansion outside the province fails to meet expectations.
