\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Comment event:
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) released the performance express of 2021, which achieved a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan (+ 13.15%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan (+ 15.52%), and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 800 million yuan (+ 16.15%). Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.102 billion yuan (+ 28.33%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 336 million yuan (+ 21.97%), and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 310 million yuan (+ 32.17%). Revenue and profit exceeded expectations.
Core view:
Revenue analysis: continuous improvement month on month, Spring Festival stock + price increase effect, and high income growth. The company achieved a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15% (Q1: + 20.22%; Q2: – 12.70%; Q3: + 10.71%; Q4: + 28.33%), and the revenue growth continued to improve month on month. In Q4, melon seeds are expected to increase by 20% and nuts by 50%. In the whole year, melon seeds and nuts are expected to increase by about 10% and 40%. We believe that the higher growth rate of Q4 is mainly due to: 1) the dislocation of the Spring Festival leads to a low base in 21 years, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival in 22 years is completed in Q4; 2) In October of 21, the company raised the price. According to historical experience, the company announced that it would take about a month from the price increase to the channel price adjustment. Before the price increase, the channel inventory was completely cleared, and the transmission effect of the price increase was good.
Profit analysis: the transmission of price increase is good, the performance is thickened and the profit is increased. The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.52% (Q1: + 32.71%; Q2: – 11.37%; Q3: + 13.81%; Q4: + 21.97%), deducting a non net profit of 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.54% (Q1: + 38.12%; Q2: – 20.50%; Q3: + 4.42%; Q4: + 32.17%). The growth rate of Q4 profit was higher than that of revenue, which was mainly due to the price increase of 21q4, which coincided with the preparation of goods in the Spring Festival, Channel acceptance is good, which has greatly thickened Q4 performance.
22 year Outlook: price increase releases elasticity, nuts are expected to be in large quantities, and the follow-up is worth looking forward to. In October, the company adjusted the ex factory price of melon seed series products by 8-18%, and the price implementation began on October 22, 2021. 1) 22q1:21 due to the relatively high base caused by the postponement of the Spring Festival, the revenue growth rate in Q1 is expected to have a double-digit growth. At the same time, the price increase effect continues to appear, and the profit growth rate is expected to be higher than the revenue growth rate; 2) 22 years: the basis of this round of price increase is good. On the one hand, the channel inventory is good; On the other hand, the price of the whole industry is raised, and the consumer acceptance is expected to be good; Third, the company’s price increase is accompanied by the adjustment of the company’s internal organizational structure, and the efficiency is expected to continue to improve. In addition, the first two years of daily nuts were greatly affected by the consumption environment. Therefore, the company launched middle-end products such as roof boxes, which met the needs of consumers. In the early stage, there has been a large volume, and the subsequent volume is expected to continue. In the future, with the improvement of the economic environment and the gradual improvement of consumption, it is expected that the company’s medium and high-end products are expected to continue in large quantities. We continue to be optimistic about the price increase effect of the company and the volume logic of nuts.
Profit forecast and rating: on the one hand, melon seeds have a good effect of price increase, with a good foundation for channel inventory removal and high consumer acceptance of collective price increase. They perform well during the Spring Festival stock preparation period, and the price increase effect is expected to continue to appear with the improvement of consumption. On the other hand, nut companies timely launch roof boxes and other middle-end products with good volume. With the improvement of consumption environment in the future, Roof boxes and daily nut consumption are expected to continue. We raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 6 billion yuan, 6.9 billion yuan and 7.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13%, 15% and 13% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be 15%, 22% and 14% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.83, 2.24 and 2.55 yuan / share respectively. We give 30 times PE according to the performance in 2022, and the one-year target price is 67 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Deterioration of sales environment; Food safety issues, etc
