\u3000\u3000 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) (300999)
Event: on February 22, 2022, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) released the 2021 annual performance express. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 226.225/4.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1% / - 31.1%, and 21q4 achieved an operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 63.500/451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.6% / - 50.5%. The company's revenue improved year-on-year, and the price of raw materials continued to rise, putting pressure on profits.
Throughout the year, the company's revenue growth was relatively stable, and the revenue of 21q1-q4 in a single quarter was + 28.0% / + 10.8% / + 12.2% / + 15.6% year-on-year respectively. On the profit side, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 21q1-q4 was + 29.1% / - 21.9% / - 65.9% / - 50.5% year-on-year respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter has continued to decline since 21q2. The company's net profit attributable to the parent company declined in 2021 due to: 1) kitchen food: ① cost side: the price of raw material soybean continued to rise in 2021, with a large increase. Based on the national soybean market price released by the National Bureau of statistics, the average price in 2021 is 14.5% higher than that in 2020. Although the company raised the price of some products, it can not fully cover the rise of raw material costs. ② Demand side: affected by the epidemic, consumption is relatively weak, and consumers are more in pursuit of cost performance, which affects the sales of medium and high-end products of the company. ③ Channel structure: due to the better control of the epidemic in China, the recovery of the catering market and the increase in the proportion of catering channel products with low gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of the company decreased. 2) Feed raw materials and oil technology: on the one hand, the procurement and pressing volume of soybeans in 2021 decreased compared with the same period in 2020, resulting in reduced pressing profits; On the other hand, the derivative financial instruments related to the company's soybean hedging business incurred certain losses.
Sponsor the Beijing Winter Olympics and expand brand influence.
1) the company has become the official sponsor of grain and oil products for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games, which is the recognition and trust of the company's products and brands. On the product side, the company launched a large number of Olympic co branded products; On the marketing side, cooperate with China Central Television to plan activities such as the Winter Olympic New Year's Eve dinner; On the channel side, carry out a series of theme activities of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. By sponsoring the Winter Olympics, the company has deepened consumers' confidence in the quality of the company's products and expanded the company's brand awareness. 2) Expand the central kitchen production line and promote the "new food fashion" of food consumption. Fengchu central kitchen park will cover all kinds of businesses and products of the central kitchen. Relying on the advantages of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) own raw materials, products and channels, it is expected to become a new growth point of the company's business. At present, the company's Hangzhou central kitchen project has been put into operation, and the products are expected to be listed in the near future. 3) Intensive cultivation of existing channels and development of blank markets. The company further subdivides the dealers in more developed cities; For blank markets, such as catering channels, the company is also actively developing dealers to fill the gap.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the rise of raw materials in 21 years exceeded expectations, the company's performance in the fourth quarter was lower than expected, and the recovery trend of consumption in the future was still uncertain, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 4.132/74.57/8918 billion yuan respectively (compared with the previous value of - 19.4% / - 8.1% / - 8.9%). The current share price corresponds to PE of 75X / 41x / 35x in 2021 / 22 / 23, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk and hedging risk.
