Key points:
In January, the sales area of commercial housing fell sharply year-on-year, and the market continued to bottom
In January 2022, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 12.23 million square meters, down 30.2% and 5.2% respectively compared with January 21 and January 19. The market transaction continued to be in the doldrums, which was also affected by less promotion in the current month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of commercial housing in the top ten cities decreased by 2.2% month on month and 2.6% year-on-year in January; The inventory removal cycle is 10.4 months (the previous value is 11.1 months), and the inventory is at a medium to high level. From the perspective of capital, the medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 742.4 billion yuan in January, an increase of 6.7 billion yuan and 202.4 billion yuan less than the same period in 20 and 21 years. Affected by the dislocation factors of the Spring Festival, M1 in January was – 1.9% year-on-year, and about 2% year-on-year excluding seasonal factors. Overall, sales have not improved, and the capital side is still under pressure.
Land transactions declined in January, but the high auction rate fell
In January 2022, the planned construction areas of land supply and transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities were 152.82 million square meters (year-on-year + 43%) and 94.85 million square meters (year-on-year – 22%) respectively; Among them, the supply of residential land and the construction area traded were 25.77 million square meters (year-on-year – 23%) and 20.74 million square meters (year-on-year – 33%) respectively.
On the other hand, the land transaction premium rate in January was 3.14%, up 0.44pct month on month, still at a historical low; The land auction rate was 54.6%, which decreased by 70 PCT month on month and remained at a high level. Overall, the land market continued to cool down in January this year, but the auction rate declined. It is expected that with the return of real estate loan approval to normal, the capital level of real estate enterprises will gradually improve, and the land transaction will stabilize and recover.
Regulatory policies at both ends of supply and demand release positive signals
After the Spring Festival, the policy of regulation and control showed positive changes, and the “policy bottom” was gradually established. (1) The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the management of real estate loan concentration, and the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration. (2) The financial Associated Press reported that the national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been formulated and promulgated recently to clarify the supervision amount, payment scope and access conditions of pre-sale funds. The policy is to correct the current excessive supervision of pre-sale funds, which can alleviate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. (3) China News Jingwei reported that the four major banks in Heze, Shandong Province reduced the down payment ratio of personal housing loans, and the down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” home buyers fell from the previous lowest 30% to the lowest 20%. The gradual loosening of “policy implementation due to the city” is expected to improve the weak trend on the demand side, which is also the direction of policy force under the tone of steady growth.
Favorable policies helped repair the valuation of the sector, and the real estate index has risen by 3.2% since February
Since February (as of February 18), the performance of the real estate sector is stronger than the market, the real estate index rose by 3.2%, and the rise and fall of Shenwan industry ranked 17 / 28. Among the secondary industries, the real estate development index rose by 3.3% and the real estate service index rose by 2.8%. Among the key listed real estate enterprises we monitored, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (+ 6.3%), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (+ 5%) and Gemdale Corporation(600383) (+ 4.3%) ranked among the top three.
Investment advice
Sales and land transactions are still in a downward trend, and the industry fundamentals continue to bottom. However, under the policy background of steady growth this year, the real estate regulation policy has been gradually relaxed since February, and the sector is expected to continue the valuation and repair market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk. Give the industry an “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
Control policy uncertainty risk; Market continued downside risk.
