Event: today, the CBRC issued the notice on expanding the pilot scope of exclusive commercial endowment insurance.
In May 2021, the pilot policy of commercial exclusive endowment insurance products was officially launched: in May 2021, the CBRC issued the notice on carrying out the pilot of exclusive commercial endowment insurance. Since June of that year, six family life insurance companies have carried out the pilot of exclusive commercial endowment insurance in Zhejiang Province (including Ningbo) and Chongqing, and the pilot period is tentatively one year; At the same time, standardize the payment method, accumulation period and collection period design, insurance liability, surrender rules, information disclosure, product management, etc. the main difference in product design is that consumers can receive it only when they are 60 years old, and the receiving period is not less than 10 years.
The promotion of exclusive endowment insurance products in the pilot areas is relatively stable: from the sales situation, the overall promotion is stable. PICC Life insurance sold the first product in the industry in July 21, and the other five pilot companies successively completed the sales of the first product in September of that year. By the end of January 2022, six pilot companies had underwritten nearly 50000 insurance policies and accumulated premiums of 400 million yuan. Overall, the pilot is relatively stable, meeting the needs of some social flexible employment groups for pension products.
The pilot scope is fully promoted, and it is expected to contribute 0.63% to NBV, a listed insurance company in that year, but it will continue to improve in the long term: this document stipulates that the pilot scope of exclusive commercial pension products will be expanded to the whole country from March 2022, and pension insurance companies are allowed to participate in the pilot on the basis of the original six pilot insurance companies. The current pilot time in the pilot area is only about half a year, and the cumulative premium is about 400 million yuan. Considering that the current GDP and total population of the pilot area account for 8.9% and 6.9% of the country (the population is the data at the end of 2020 and the GDP is the data at the end of 2021). Assumptions: 1) the overall margin of the product is 10%; 2) After the sales are launched, the proportion of new orders in the pilot area is only 8%. 3) the proportion of new orders of pension insurance companies and unlisted insurance enterprises is 40%. We calculate that the contribution of new NBV in the next year is about 600 million yuan, accounting for 0.63% of our NBV to listed insurance enterprises in 2022. With the increase of consumer recognition, the continuous support of regulatory policies and the promotion of insurance companies, this proportion is expected to continue to increase for a long time.
Investment suggestion: there is still huge demand for pension products in the long term. At present, the fundamental bottom of the life insurance sector is upward, and the valuation has a very high margin of safety, which is an excellent time point for long-term value allocation. Individual stocks are suggested to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with obvious release of real estate risks, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) with relatively leading debt performance in 2022 and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) with continuous promotion of life insurance reform.
Risk warning: the policy promotion is less than the expected risk; Equity market fluctuation risk; Long term interest rate decline and real estate thunderstorm risk;
