Core view:
Market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% to 3490.76 points; The CSI 300 index rose 1.08% to 4651.24 points; SW nonferrous metals industry index rose 5.31% this week to 5775.50 points, ranking second among the 28 primary industries of a shares. In terms of molecular industries, among the five secondary sub industries of the non-ferrous metal industry this week, industrial metals, precious metals, small metals, energy metals and new metal materials rose by 1.64%, 4.69%, 6.29%, 10.66% and 6.74% respectively.
Key metal price data: copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the previous period of this week closed at 71890 yuan / ton, 22840 yuan / ton, 25275 yuan / ton, 15470 yuan / ton, 177890 yuan / ton and 340010 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 0.86%, – 0.57%, – 2.13%, 1.11%, 2.39% and 0.37% respectively compared with last week. This week, London LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin closed at US $9955 / ton, US $3267 / ton, US $3580 / ton, US $2332 / ton, US $24270 / ton and US $43910 / ton respectively, with changes of 0.96%, 4.14%, – 1.28%, 2.33%, 5.29% and 0.83% respectively compared with last week. In terms of precious metals, gold and silver in the previous period closed at 386.64 yuan / g and 4915 yuan / kg respectively, with changes of 2.69% and 1.70% respectively compared with last week. COMEX gold and silver closed at US $1900.80 and US $23.95 respectively this week, with changes of 3.19% and 2.49% respectively compared with last week. In terms of rare metals, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide and sintered neodymium iron boron N35 blanks closed at 1.095 million yuan / ton, 15.1 million yuan / ton, 3.145 million yuan / ton and 287.5 yuan / kg respectively this week, with changes of 5.80%, 3.42%, 0.96% and 3.60% respectively compared with last week. This week, the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate, industrial grade lithium carbonate, battery grade lithium hydroxide and Australian lithium concentrate closed at 445415 yuan / ton, 425500 yuan / ton, 375333 yuan / ton and 2710 US dollars / ton respectively, with changes of 12.64%, 13.32%, 15.37% and 0% respectively compared with last week. This week, China’s electrolytic cobalt, MB electrolytic cobalt, cobalt trioxide and cobalt sulfate closed at 536500 yuan / ton, 34925 US dollars / pound, 416500 yuan / ton and 113000 yuan / ton respectively, an increase of 3.37%, 0.50%, 1.46% and 1.35% respectively compared with last week.
Investment suggestion: China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has a good start. In January, the production and sales volume reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, continuing the high growth trend of last year. Under the condition that the downstream terminal demand continues to be hot, the lithium resources in the upstream of the industrial chain maintain a high boom, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise, breaking through the 400000 yuan / ton mark. The world’s leading lithium battery enterprises revealed that the shortage of lithium supply could not be solved in the short term, and the global lithium resource leader improved. The global lithium demand is expected to reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. LCE also alleviated the market’s concern about the sustainability of the prosperity of the lithium industry to a certain extent. According to the forecast of the published annual report of 2021, the performance of leading enterprises in the lithium industry began to release significantly from 21q4. However, the prosperity of the lithium industry remained unchanged in 2022, and the lithium price remained strong and continued to rise, which made the performance of leading enterprises highly uncertain. Superimposed with the correction of the early share price of the lithium sector, the current valuation and investment cost performance of the lithium sector is high. After the leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price led to the overall stabilization of the lithium battery sector, The lithium sector supported by fundamentals and valuation may usher in a strong rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466), Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) (002240), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756), Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) (002738), Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) (300390), Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) (600499). China’s steady growth policies have been introduced one after another, and the real estate policy may be relaxed. The peak season of downstream construction after the festival is gradually coming, and the industrial metal consumption is expected to increase marginally. The market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has reached its peak in the near future and will begin to digest gradually. The pressure on metal prices will also weaken marginally, and industrial metal prices will remain strong. We are still optimistic about the investment opportunities of industrial metal leaders under the main line of steady growth. We suggest paying attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899), Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) (000630), Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) (601168), Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) (000933), Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) (002532), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219).
