Investment summary:
Market situation: this week (2.12-2.18), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by - 0.73% (4.00% last week), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by 1.70% (1.24% last week); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose - 3.03% (4.35% last week), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 2.32% (1.36% last week). This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
Sales are warmer than last week, but the sales pressure in low-energy cities is still huge. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (2.1 ~ 2.17) was - 30.2% year-on-year and - 27.1% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (2.1 ~ 2.17) was - 46.2% year-on-year and - 30.1% year-on-year last month. Under the downturn of sales, the inventory level of new houses is stable, and the decontamination cycle has increased. From the data, the cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (up to 2.17) was 573 days, compared with 497 days in the same period last month.
The supply and demand of the land market are weak, and the land transaction continues to decline. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of February 13) was - 55.8% year-on-year, and - 54.9% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (2.7 ~ 2.13) this week was 3.3% and 5.9% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of February 13) was - 73.1% year-on-year, and - 72.3% year-on-year last week.
Under the background of the development of financing side policies and the storm of real estate enterprises, the domestic debt and trust financing of policy real estate enterprises have warmed up, and the external debt financing is in the doldrums. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.18) was - 39.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 57.5% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.18) accumulated - 100.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 86.7% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (2.1 ~ 2.18) accumulated - 60.5% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 84.7% year-on-year.
Investment strategy: Recently, many places have introduced the relaxation of housing loan policy, and stabilizing the expectation of home buyers has become a top priority in the current market. We believe that the focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall and decline on the demand side. It is expected that more cities with high sales pressure will successively introduce stability maintenance measures to gradually reverse the situation of both sales volume and price.
We believe that the care policy of the financing section will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support of the financing side will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises after meeting the requirements of the stable central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head. The market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk of further tightening industrial policies, the risk of continued decline in profitability, and the risk of sales falling short of expectations.
