Key investment points
Wholesale in January was – 8.2% month on month, better than we expected. Passenger Federation caliber: the output of narrow passenger cars reached 2.059 million (year-on-year + 10.4%, month on month – 16.5%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 2.172 million (year-on-year + 6.8%, month on month – 8.2%). Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance: in January, there were 2175800 traffic compulsory insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 4.11% / – 0.62% respectively. CAAC caliber: in January, the total production and sales of passenger cars were 207.7/2.186 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.7% / + 6.7% and a month on month increase of – 17.8% / – 9.7% respectively. Export: in January, the export of Automobile Association caliber passenger vehicles was 185000, with a month on month ratio of + 94.5% / – 1.1% respectively. Among them, 54000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in January, with a month on month ratio of + 538.7% / + 230.5% respectively. The main reason for the significant month on month growth of new energy export was Tesla China’s export of 40499 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 16430%. Looking forward to February 2022: we expect that the overall output and wholesale of the passenger union industry are – 25% / – 25% month on month, respectively, and the corresponding year-on-year are + 36.42% / + 43.52% respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 130000; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be 300000; The overall traffic insurance of the industry is expected to be – 35% month on month, about 1.41 million vehicles.
New energy tracking: the wholesale caliber of passenger cars, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 18.97%, with a month on month ratio of -2.38pct. According to the passenger Federation, the output of new energy passenger vehicles in January reached 428000 (year-on-year + 141.0%, month on month – 11.8%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 412000 (year-on-year + 141.4%, month on month – 18.5%). The retail sales of new energy with the standard of traffic compulsory insurance reached 316100 vehicles (year-on-year + 113.68%, month on month – 34.68%). The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 18.97%, with a month on month ratio of -2.38pct. In terms of regions, the sales volume in non restricted regions accounted for 78.55%, with a month on month increase of + 1.84pct. In terms of price band, the proportion of low-end consumption + high-end consumption sales increased. In December, the proportion of sales volume between 0-50000, 50-100000, 150000-200000, 300000-400000 and above 400000 increased, with a month on month increase of + 1.97pct, + 1.02pct, + 0.22pct, + 2.39pct and + 2.39pct respectively. The price of new energy vehicles is lower than that of new energy vehicles in the range of + 1.8 million pct-5 million PCT month on month.
Tracking level of market share of independent brands: in January, the market share of independent brands in the overall market / car market fell by -1.49pct / – 2.0pct month on month, and the market share of SUV market was + 0.7pct.
Data level of key model inquiry: 1) in terms of new energy models, from the perspective of month on month growth, song plus new energy performed well at + 80.03% month on month in January. The monthly inquiry volume of id.4x and id.6×1 was – 53.44% and – 37.51% month on month. From the perspective of absolute value, Hongguang mini and song plus new energy had the highest order volume in January. 2) In terms of fuel models, from the perspective of month on month growth, the performance of tank 300 + Mocha orders was better, with a month on month increase of + 8.71% / + 6.00% respectively. From the perspective of absolute value, the key fuel models with the best performance in January are Chang’an cs75plus and great wall Haval H6.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts section recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk warning: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations; The price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
