Frequent policy statements this week have caused continuous pressure on iron ore prices and dragged down steel prices. The real demand is in the process of switching from off-season to peak season, and the absolute level is still low. The high-frequency data still can not explain the strength of demand. The effect of steady growth can only be tested in the peak season of March. In terms of the total amount, it may still be difficult for the steel demand in the spring peak season to exceed the expectation, because the real estate sales are still in the doldrums, and the short-term new construction is likely to maintain the weakness at the end of last year. If the real estate side contributes – 20% of the demand growth, it needs 10-15% of the infrastructure and industrial growth to bring the total demand to positive growth. Steady growth will certainly stimulate infrastructure construction, but due to the industrial boom and high base in the first half of 21 years, it is difficult to achieve the above growth rate, so the demand in peak season will face the uncertainty of falsification. Although the total amount is facing uncertainty, structurally, the market continues to grow steadily with high transaction certainty. This week’s “counting from the east to the west” triggered hot spots related to iron and steel IDC, which is similar to the pipeline theme in the early stage. Such expected theme investment may bring phased trading opportunities for relevant stocks. In addition, the field of growing new materials focuses on Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
