At the 2021q4 performance presentation meeting, Amat showed that the performance of fy2022q1 (December February) was at the upper limit of the previous guidance, and the revenue reached a record high. At present, we are still faced with the challenge of shortage of parts. Some equipment supply is forced to be postponed, and the production capacity is nearly sold out in 2022. The equipment expenditure of wafer factory in 2022 may reach US $100 billion, which is still optimistic about the market growth in 2023.
Core content of the meeting
The bright performance in the fourth quarter verified the high prosperity, and it is expected that the growth in the next quarter will be still relatively high. The company’s semiconductor system revenue in fy2022q1 (December February) hit a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, of which process control, CVD and CMP all hit a record high, while the supply shortage of parts encountered by the measurement business is relatively mild, the revenue has increased by 68% year-on-year in the past 12 months, and the revenue of electron beam products has nearly doubled. Due to the delayed delivery of some equipment due to the shortage of supply chain, the company’s orders for semiconductor equipment reached an all-time high of US $8 billion, an increase of US $1.3 billion in a single quarter. The company expects the revenue of fy2022q2 (March may) to increase by 14% year-on-year to reach the median value of US $6.35 billion, of which the revenue of semiconductor equipment is expected to increase by 16% to US $4.6 billion and the revenue of AGS is expected to increase by 12% to US $1.35 billion. Meanwhile, EPS is expected to grow 17% year-on-year to a median of $1.90.
The supply chain has changed to “preparatory supply”, and the competition of chip sovereignty promotes the regionalization of supply. The company believes that in the environment of chip shortage, the importance of semiconductors at the national level and economy is recognized, and the government support and incentive measures in the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other regions will encourage the supply chain to strengthen the regional layout. At the same time, the current chip shortage has led to the delayed delivery of parts required for equipment production, It also changes the supply chain from “timely supply” to “ready supply”.
The digital transformation of economy continues to promote the extensive demand for foundry / logic, and is optimistic about the industry demand in 2023. Driven by the technological innovation of cutting-edge technology and cloud applications, there is a wide demand for logic chips in ICAPS (IOT, communication, automotive electronics, power electronics, sensors) and advanced process markets. The company’s foundry / logic expenditure accounted for more than 60% of WFE in 2021 and the growth rate exceeded memory. It is expected that the growth of foundry / logic will take the lead again in 2022. At the same time, the company mentioned in the ppact development strategy that new designs such as ASIC chips for specific applications, new 3D structures such as GAA and back power supply, further evolution of 3dnand and 3ddram, technology evolution such as new materials for interface and interconnection, EUV and more advanced pattern miniaturization, 3D advanced packaging and so on will improve the complexity of the technical route, and the demand for advanced processes will continue to be at a high level, Capital intensity will remain at the level of recent years. The company believes that in view of the current orders on hand and the demand trend of the industry, the supply level of the industry will not be able to keep up with the demand for a long time.
Investment advice
Recommended semiconductor equipment sector, recommended combination: shengmei Shanghai, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ;
Recommended semiconductor parts and components, recommended combination: Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.Ltd(300260) , Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) , Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666)
Main risks of rating
The uncertainty of geopolitical friction; Uncertainty of parts supply chain security.
