Macro: the PPI of the United States in January exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year increase of CPI and PPI in China fell. Abroad: the PPI of the United States increased by 1% month on month in January, exceeding the expected value by 0.5pct. At present, the mainstream expectation of the interest rate increase in the United States during the year is concentrated in the interest rate increase of 150-200 basis points. China: CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year in January, down 0.6pct from the previous month; China’s January PPI rose 9.1% year-on-year and decreased 0.2% month on month.
Iron and steel: the implementation guidelines for energy conservation and carbon reduction have been released, and Tangshan has recently strengthened environmental protection control. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 4.92% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 36.30% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 68.8%, with a slight increase of 1.50pct month on month. Tangshan deployed the “ten backward” work of air pollution control, and upgraded the environmental protection control of key industries such as steel and coking.
New energy metals: the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continued to develop at a high speed in mid January. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 372500 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 14.09% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 438000 yuan / ton, up 11.73% month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased slightly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 increased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $24150 / ton, up 1.88% month on month.
Industrial metals: the implementation guidelines for energy conservation and carbon reduction have been released, and the capacity transformation of non-ferrous industry will be completed by 2025. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased slightly month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased slightly month on month in October, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 89% in December, and increased slightly by 0.93pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased slightly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 0.30% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Gold: the pace of US dollar interest rate hike may accelerate, and the gold price has increased significantly month on month. This week, Comex gold prices rose significantly by 4.02% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased significantly by 8.46% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.97%, up slightly by 0.04pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708, buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, bought), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated) and other lithium rich enterprises.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) of mine end expansion (601899, buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated) of high-end aluminum enterprises.
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
