Core view
Adjust the down payment ratio of commercial loans more underground to boost the confidence of home buyers. Recently, the adjustment of real estate policy has gradually transmitted to the direction of demand stimulation. After the Spring Festival, the down payment ratio of underground business loans has been increased in Chongqing, Ganzhou, Heze and other places. Zhengzhou, Zhejiang and other places have increased their demand in terms of talent settlement and house purchase subsidies. We believe that we have entered the cycle of intensive introduction of bottom-up policies on the demand side, which continues to decline with the growth rate of fundamentals, The release of real estate easing policy will be gradually transmitted from the supply side to the demand side. It is expected that low-energy cities with poor subsequent fundamentals and high land financial dependence of local governments will follow up the easing policy. The liberalization of purchase and loan restrictions combined with the reduction of actual house purchase interest rate will effectively enhance the confidence of house buyers in entering the market.
State owned enterprises and central enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition, and private real estate enterprises lack investment enthusiasm. In the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing, 18 lands were supplied, 1 was sold, and 17 lands were sold, with a total transaction amount of 48 billion yuan. Among the land sold, 8 were sold at the base price and 9 at the premium. Only 3 reached the price ceiling stipulated by the government, and the premium rate of the other 6 plots was within 10%. It is worth noting that only 3 land transactions were acquired by the consortium, and the rest were acquired independently. Most of the independent real estate enterprises are state-owned and central enterprises, such as CNOOC, China Resources and Greentown, which have relatively strong trading and capital strength. On the whole, the heat of this round of local auction has not been significantly improved, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition, and private real estate enterprises have insufficient investment enthusiasm.
The policy release is strengthened step by step, and the upward space of the sector can be expected. At present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. Under the background of steady growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step, and the release of easing policies will be gradually transmitted from the supply side to the demand side. The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. Continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development.
