Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index + 0.8% this week, closing at 3490.76 points; Gem means + 2.9% this week, closing at 2826.81 points; CSI 300 + 1.1% this week, closing at 4651.24. The real estate sector was – 0.7%, ranking 25th among 31 industries.
New house transaction: transaction area + 145.3% year-on-year and + 69.3% month on month
This week (2.11-2.17), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focus on tracking is about 2.25 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 145.3% and a month on month increase of + 69.3%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 810000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 300.7% and a month on month increase of + 91.5%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 990000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.0% and a month on month increase of + 45.4%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 450000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.7% and a month on month increase of + 99.8%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was + 54.1% year-on-year and + 44.5% month on month
This week (2.11-2.17), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focus on tracking is about 690000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.1% and a month on month increase of + 44.5%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 250000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.5% and a month on month increase of + 40.4%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 270000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.4% and a month on month increase of + 24.0%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 180000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 108.0% and a month on month increase of + 104.0%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was – 2.5% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 10.9 months
As of February 17, 2022, this week, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking was about 89.43 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 2.5%. The overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about October 9. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 29.67 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 4.60%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 32.4 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 1.90%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.4 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 27.36 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 0.92%, and the decontamination cycle was 22.0 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 6.18 million square meters, the total land transaction price is 4.6 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 2.10%
Last week (2.7-2.13), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 152, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 14.39 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 109, with the corresponding land transaction construction area of about 6.18 million square meters, the total price of land transactions is about 4.6 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 2.10%. Among them, the transaction and construction area of land in first tier, second tier and third tier cities were 240000 m3, 1.88 million m3 and 4.06 million m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 68%, – 72% and – 66% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rate was + 8.06%, + 0.38% and + 2.60% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the heat of the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing rebounded, and the performance of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises was outstanding. Of the 18 plots, 17 were successfully transferred, and 1 was sold out because there was no quotation; The total construction area of 17 parcels of land is 1.609 million square meters, with a total transaction amount of 48.02 billion yuan. The characteristics of this centralized land supply are as follows: I) continuing the requirements for high-standard schemes, one case of “competitive existing house sales” was concluded: among the 18 residential land listed this time, 9 plots adopted the competitive existing house sales area bidding method, accounting for 50%, but in the end, only one plot in cuigezhuang, Chaoyang District was concluded under the condition of “existing house sales” of 41000 square meters. II) the overall premium rate is lower than that of the same period last year, and the turnover rate is lower than that of the third round last year: the overall premium rate of this local auction is 4.46%, which is lower than the premium rate of the first round of centralized local auction in 2021 (6.41%), which may be due to the “competitive existing house sales” rule mentioned in I). In the case of obvious cooling of the market, in order to ensure the stability of profit space and cash flow, The bid is more cautious. At the same time, the auction rate dropped to 6% from 17% of the third round of land supply in 2021, or because the local auction pricing left a certain profit space for real estate enterprises, the plots obtained at the beginning of the year have a certain opportunity to form the sales reserve value of the year. III) the performance of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises is positive. Following the “three red lines”, the “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply”
The introduction of policies such as “pilot real estate tax reform” will restrict both supply and demand. The regulation of wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large-scale expansion is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in early 2022, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy has become stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital has been greatly tightened.
