According to the data of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery released by the innovation alliance, in January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume totaled 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 86.9% and a month on month increase of – 38.3%. Among them, the loading of ternary battery was 7.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.2% and a month on month increase of – 34.0%, accounting for 45% of the total loading volume; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 8.9gwh, and the year-on-year output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries in January totaled 29.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 146.2% and a month on month increase of – 6.2%. Among them, the total output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 261.8%, a month on month increase of – 6.3%, accounting for 63.3%, and the total output of ternary lithium batteries was 10.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 57.9%, a month on month increase of – 5.4%, accounting for 36.5%. In terms of concentration, in January, the loading volume of power battery enterprises, the first enterprise Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounted for 50.24%, the second enterprise Byd Company Limited(002594) accounted for 20.93%, the third China Innovation Airlines accounted for 7.43%, the fourth GuoXuan accounted for 5.81%, the fifth honeycomb energy accounted for 2.69%, the sixth Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) accounted for 2.31%, the seventh Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) accounted for 2.11%, the eighth Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) accounted for 1.41%, and the ninth Javert power accounted for 1.08%, Tafel ranked 10th, accounting for 0.82%; The top three enterprises accounted for 78.6%, the top five enterprises accounted for 87.1%, and the top ten enterprises accounted for 94.8%; Recently, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the price negotiations between battery enterprises and downstream vehicle enterprises have been implemented. The price increase range is between 5-10%, which can basically cover the impact of the price increase of lithium carbonate since the fourth quarter. The profitability of battery enterprises in the first and second quarters is expected to be basically the same as that in the third and fourth quarters of last year, and the price of upstream resources is expected to stabilize in the first half of this year, In the second half of the year, battery enterprises will usher in a profit turning point and continue to be optimistic about lithium battery investment opportunities.
Suggestion: the industry fundamentals have remained strong since the beginning of the year and are optimistic about the outlook of the industrial chain for a long time. Continue to pay attention to the midstream links with good competition pattern and be optimistic about the leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to the downstream host plant, and the turning point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is uncertain, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit first; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of head diaphragm enterprises has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprises have full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leading enterprises give priority to the growth of demand market. With the advancement of overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers is increased, which is expected to further improve profits; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and marketing is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production to seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefited from the long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance was stabilized in 2022, and the cost and profit advantages were further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the second production expansion tide of power battery was started, which superimposed the rapid growth of overseas demand. The major lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technological renewal; Market competition intensifies risks; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
