Key points
This week’s opinion update:
The national development and Reform Commission first proposed the pre REITs Fund: the national development and Reform Commission recently discussed matters related to pre REITs. Similar to the VC / PE investment fund before the listing of enterprises, pre REITs fund can accelerate the improvement of the operation efficiency and income of relevant infrastructure assets, accelerate the listing rhythm of REITs projects, shorten the payment collection cycle, solve the problem of capital term matching, guide the expectation of new investment, attract more funds to participate in the investment of new projects, and then pry more new infrastructure investment.
Embrace the historic opportunity of public offering REITs for infrastructure: this week, we issued an in-depth report REITs and PPP: similar rhythms, different outcomes (2022-2-18), emphasizing that REITs is a very important reform of investment and financing mechanism, and its impact and Reform on the construction industry (and other related industries) will surpass that of PPP in that year. REITs will be an important variable of capital source of infrastructure investment. Firmly optimistic about the steady growth sector and enterprises with infrastructure operation assets.
The real estate chain welcomes the favorable policies on the demand side, recommends float glass, and suggests paying attention to consumer building materials: under the background of urban policy implementation, more underground adjustments are made to the down payment ratio of the first house loan, and the policy side is gradually guided to the demand side, which may alleviate the operation risk of real estate enterprises. If the real estate sales data is observed to pick up in the later stage, the fundamental inflection point of the real estate chain can be established. From the relaxation of demand side policy to the improvement of sales margin, it still needs a process. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading consumer building materials companies Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) . The marginal relaxation of real estate policy will support the demand for float glass; We are optimistic about the demand for float glass in 2022, and recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) .
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 0.86%, of which other special materials sector increased the most (+ 6.99%) and glass sector decreased the most (- 2.54%); This week, CITIC construction index was + 0.84%, with the largest increase (+ 8.82%) in garden engineering sector and the smallest increase (+ 0.18%) in housing construction sector; This week, the public infrastructure REITs sector increased by – 0.55% (arithmetic average), among which AVIC Shougang lvneng REIT increased the most (3.85%), and Soochow Suyuan industrial REIT decreased the most (- 3.52%).
High frequency data (2.12-2.18): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 510 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.24%; The storage capacity ratio is 66.81% and the chain ratio is + 0.18pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2303 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 9.88%; The inventory was 42.76 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of – 11.11%. The average price of 3.2mm and 2mm photovoltaic glass was 25 yuan and 19.20 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month; Glass fiber: this week, the price of winding direct yarn is 6400 yuan / ton, and the price of G75 electronic yarn is 12250 yuan / ton, which is the same month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) ); Capital construction direction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (recommended attention: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The end of the policy on consumption of building materials has been realized (it is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: public infrastructure REITs bring revaluation of sector value (it is recommended to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) ); Be optimistic about the equipment leasing track (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) ); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) ).
Preferred portfolio: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (16xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (11xpe, the performance elasticity of float glass and the valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (24xpe, UTG volume is imminent, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
