This week's topic
In 2021, the new scale of China's offshore wind power production reached 16.9 million KW, a year-on-year increase of about 340%, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 26.38 million KW, ranking first in the world. In 2022, with the withdrawal of the state subsidy for offshore wind power and the opening of the era of parity, what is the development status of China's offshore wind power industry and how much incremental space will there be in the future? This week, we combed the development status of China's offshore wind power industry from the perspective of volume and price.
Core view
China's offshore wind power development prospect is high-quality and easy to absorb
China has a good reserve of wind energy resources. According to the results of the general survey of offshore wind energy resources, China has a water depth of 5 to 25 meters and an offshore wind power development potential of about 200 million kilowatts; The development potential of offshore wind power from 50m to 70m is about 500 million KW. The offshore wind speed is high and there is little quiet wind period, which can make effective use of the power generation capacity of wind turbines. It is generally estimated that the wind speed at sea is 20% higher than that along the plain coast, and the power generation increases by 70%. The wind turbine with a design life of 20 years on land can reach 25 to 30 years at sea. Compared with onshore wind power, China's offshore wind power resource development is closer to the load center, which is convenient for local consumption, can effectively avoid or reduce the loss in long-distance power transmission, and does not need to occupy a lot of land resources. Volume: the installed capacity of offshore wind power is in the channel of rapid growth
In terms of total output, in 2021, the new scale of China's offshore wind power production reached 16.9 million KW, a year-on-year increase of about 340%; The cumulative installed capacity reached 26.38 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 142.7%, accounting for 48% of the world's sea breeze installed capacity, surpassing the UK and ranking first in the world.
In terms of competition pattern, both local and development enterprises show the characteristics of high concentration. By the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in Jiangsu Province was 6.816 million KW, accounting for 62.7% of the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China; The cumulative installed capacity of the top five enterprises accounts for 67.9% of the country's total installed capacity.
In terms of the planning of new offshore wind power installation in the 14th five year plan, the offshore wind power installation increment of Jiangsu, Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Shandong provinces and cities during the 14th Five Year Plan period reached 43.28gw, 5.25 times that of 8.25gw in China's 13th five year plan. Price: provincial subsidies relay national subsidies to help offshore wind power enter the era of parity
Evolution of offshore wind power price policy: China's offshore wind power policy is divided into five stages: pilot, concession bidding, benchmark price, competitive allocation and parity. In the benchmark price stage, the on grid price of the project is 0.85 yuan / (kW · h), and the subsidy intensity is as high as 46.7% - 57.1%; In 2022, the national subsidy will decline, and offshore wind power will enter the era of parity.
Restart of offshore wind power bidding market: from September 2021 to February 2022, the number of projects with bidding or winning progress reached 15, with a total scale of 8.89gw. In addition, Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces have successively established provincial financial subsidy systems for offshore wind power to take over the "national subsidy" to help the development of offshore wind power.
Investment advice
China is rich in sea breeze resources and easy to absorb. In 2021, China's cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power has ranked first in the world, and entered the era of parity in 2020. The increment of offshore wind power during the "14th five year plan" period can be expected. According to the plan, the installed increment of offshore wind power in Jiangsu, Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Shandong provinces and cities during the "14th five year plan" period will reach 43.28gw, 5.25 times that of 8.25gw in China's "13th five year plan". In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to pay attention to offshore wind power operators [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) ] [ Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Zhejiang Provincial New Energy Investment Group Co.Ltd(600032) ], submarine cable targets [ Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) ] [ Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ] [ Shanghai Qifan Cable Co.Ltd(605222) ].
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the industrial technological progress slows down, the power demand is less than expected, the risk of coal price fluctuation, etc
