Core concern: the unit price of e-commerce express remains unchanged month on month, and the price policy of the headquarters is still tightened
The unit price of Yiwu ticket in key grain producing areas maintained a positive growth year-on-year, and the repair trend was gradually transmitted to other grain producing areas. In terms of industry, the unit price of single monthly ticket in January 2022 was 9.70 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.75 yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.51 yuan. Among them, for the price wind vane in key grain producing areas, the unit price of Yiwu January ticket is 3.38 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 0.29 yuan; The unit price of January ticket in Guangzhou was 7.49 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.81 yuan; The unit price of January ticket in Shenzhen is 10.75 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 0.33 yuan.
From the perspective of the company, the unit price of e-commerce express delivery is also increasing month on month. In January 2022, the unit price of SF ticket was 17.47 yuan, a month on month increase of + 6.33%; The unit price of Yunda ticket is 2.62 yuan, a month on month increase of + 11.49%; The unit price of round pass ticket is 2.72 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 8.80%; The unit price of Shentong ticket was 2.59 yuan, a month on month increase of + 6.15%.
From the perspective of the industry and the company, the introduction of regulatory policies promotes the return of prices to a benign trend. We judge that prices are expected to continue to be strong in the off-season from March to April.
Industry: the single volume in January increased by 3.30% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of the wrong Spring Festival, there is no worry about the growth of the whole year
Single volume: the single volume in a single month increased by 3.30% year-on-year. In January 2022, the number of express orders in the industry was 8.774 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.30%. The decline in growth rate is mainly due to the wrong period of the Spring Festival, but excluding the influencing factors of the wrong period of the Spring Festival, the total single volume from January to February is expected to grow significantly. China’s e-commerce online shopping is still driven, with the superposition of express sinking (regional sinking and unit value sinking) and steady progress of express going to sea. Based on the above factors, we believe that the number of express orders in the industry is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth in the next two years.
Revenue: the express revenue in January was 91.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%. In January 2022, the monthly express delivery revenue of the industry was 91.730 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.73% and a month on month decrease of 0.03%.
A-share target: the volume and price of the leading stock are still good, entering the essential period of profit restoration
Single volume: from the market share in January, Yunda > Yuantong > Shentong = Shunfeng. In January 2022, SF’s single quantity was 989 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 2.12pts to 11.27%; Yunda has a single volume of 1.512 billion pieces, with an average daily single volume of 48.77 million tickets, with a year-on-year market share of -0.69pts to 17.23%; The number of Yuantong orders was 1.329 billion, with a year-on-year market share of -0.29pts to 15.15%; The number of Shentong orders was 989 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 0.02pts to 11.27%.
Pattern: observed by Cr4 index, the share is still concentrated to the leader. According to the express service brand concentration index CR8 released by the State Post Office, the cumulative CR8 in January 2022 was 81.9%, an increase of 1.4pts month on month, 1.5pts year on year and 0.7pts year on year; In terms of the cumulative market share of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong, the cumulative Cr4 of A-share express in January 2022 was 54.9%, up 2.7pts month on month and 5.5pts compared with the same period in 2019. The single volume still showed a trend of leading concentration.
Revenue: SF continues to lead A-share express companies. In January 2022, SF Express’s revenue increased by + 10.85% year-on-year to RMB 17.28 billion, with a two-year compound growth of 24.49%; Yunda Express’s revenue increased by + 28.02% year-on-year to RMB 3.957 billion, with a compound growth of 47.82% in two years; Yuantong Express’s revenue increased by + 20.11% year-on-year to RMB 3.619 billion, with a compound growth of 44.93% in two years; Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) revenue increased by + 21.28% year-on-year to 2.565 billion yuan, with a two-year compound increase of 39.13%.
Investment: the track pattern is gradually clear and optimistic about the leading development
Policy supervision is the source driving force for the recovery of the express boom, and the trend is gradually increasing. Following the formal legislation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry in September 2021, the state post office began to solicit public opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) on January 7, 2022. From the revised content of the measures, we interpret the key increment as one core, two dimensions and three key points: “one core” is to promote the national high-quality development of the express industry; “Two dimensions” lie in competition order and service quality; The “three key points” are to prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusive price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees. The regulatory legislation will be upgraded to the national level, the multi-directional guarantee of profits will return to benign, and the repair of industry value is expected to exceed expectations.
Express value repair is divided into three levels and two stages, which is about to enter the essential level of profit repair. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price has gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the level of profit repair, and the corresponding stock price performance may usher in the second wave of “main rising wave”. We expect Q4 and next year’s overall profit inflection point to rise. In 2022, the scale of single piece profit repair will increase, and the leading performance will be highly flexible. It is recommended to pay attention to the value certainty, repair the Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , the single volume profit leader Zhongtong express and the effective Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) of digital construction; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to pay attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business formats.
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
