Capital construction grew steadily. As of last week, the number of recruitment released by Tonglian was 670, which increased significantly, higher than the historical high in the same period. The second round of research after the Centennial construction Festival: infrastructure projects continue to make efforts, and the recovery of the housing construction market is not optimistic. In terms of research and the number of new contracts signed by enterprises, infrastructure construction has increased steadily. In January, the number of new contracts signed by central enterprises for infrastructure construction increased significantly.
In January, automobile production and sales increased negatively year-on-year. In January, the automobile output was 2.422 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.38% and a month on month increase of - 16.68%; The sales volume was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.89% and a month on month increase of - 9.16%.
Steel demand picked up steadily, and iron ore inventory was close to the historical peak level. Last week, the consumption of thread steel was 1.366 million tons, an increase over the previous week. Last week, the apparent consumption of hot rolled sector was 2.91549 million tons, an increase of 232500 tons month on month; Last week, the apparent consumption of cold rolled sheet was 807100 tons, up 83400 tons month on month; Last week, the port inventory of imported iron ore was 160.34 million tons, an increase of 1.44 million tons month on month. The port inventory of iron ore is close to the historical peak level in 2018. The total national coke inventory was 11.013 million tons, an increase of 124700 tons month on month.
Last week, iron ore prices led the decline, while steel prices fluctuated. Last week, the decline of steel futures was greater than that of spot steel. The spot steel in the North mainly fell below that of spot steel, and the spot steel in the South fluctuated; Iron ore prices fell sharply, coking coal prices rebounded slightly, and coke prices fell. On February 17, the national development and Reform Commission interviewed the second batch of iron ore trading enterprises. At present, the iron ore inventory is close to the historical peak level in March 2018, but the Proctor price is significantly higher than the 18-year level of $60-70 / ton. Subsequent iron ore prices are expected to be weak as a whole.
Investment suggestion: at present, the overall supply and demand of the steel market is still weak, but the prosperity of the demand (Infrastructure) of some downstream industries has improved marginally; The price of iron ore on the raw material side has entered a weak trend, the industry has entered a new cycle (carbon control + ultra-low emission + merger and reorganization + not encouraging export), the competition pattern has improved, and the ability of supply adjustment has been enhanced. It is suggested to allocate two types of Companies: pay attention to the improvement of the investment margin of downstream infrastructure, resulting in the recovery of demand for pipes and building materials, and relevant beneficiary companies. Considering the current low valuation of the steel sector, it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies with high long-term dividend level.
Risk tip: the steady growth of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, and there is little demand for pipes and other steels. Under the internal circulation development pattern, the consumption of durable consumer goods such as automobiles is lower than expected, and the demand for automobile steel is weak.
