Plate review
Last week’s performance: from February 14 to February 18, most sectors of shenwanyi rose, among which power equipment and non-ferrous metals led the rise, with increases of 5.53% and 5.31% respectively. Non bank finance and public utilities led the decline, with decreases of 3.93% and 1.21% respectively.
Last week, the top ten stocks in the new energy sector were: Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) (25.62%), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) (20.03%), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (19.25%), Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) (18.51%), Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) (18.23%), Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) (16.92%), Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (16.64%), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (16.48%), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (16.04%), Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) (15.77%). The top ten stocks that fell were: Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) (- 5.96%), Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) (- 5.88%), Xinyi Glass (- 4.84%), Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) (- 3.26%), Zhengwei new material (- 2.95%), Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) (- 2.40%), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (- 2.12%), Geely Automobile (- 2.00%), Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) (- 1.92%) and Hubei Huitian New Materials Co.Ltd(300041) (- 1.79%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
According to the statistics of the passenger Federation, in January 2022, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 412000, an increase of 141.4% year-on-year and a decline of 18.5% month on month. In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 19.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.6pct. The sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was still in a high boom. The European and American markets met expectations. In January, the sales of new energy vehicles in seven European countries totaled 114000, with a year-on-year increase of + 30% and a month on month increase of – 46%. The European market penetration rate was 19%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5pct and a month on month decrease of – 10PCT, which was related to the seasonal factors of European and American car markets; The total sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States in January was 62000, with a year-on-year increase of + 75% and a month on month increase of – 18%. The U.S. market penetration rate was 6.2%, with a year-on-year + 3PCT, which was basically flat month on month, basically in line with expectations.
In January, the traditional off-season was superimposed with the Spring Festival holiday, and the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies led to the rise of the prices of many new energy vehicles. The sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 18.5% month on month in January, but the decline was slightly narrowed compared with – 20.5% month on month in January 2021. Secondly, considering the high sales base in December of 21 and the relative loss of 3-5 days due to the Spring Festival in January, the sales volume of 412000 vehicles in January is close to the level of 429000 vehicles in November of 21, higher than 368000 vehicles in October of 21, reflecting the strong downstream demand. There is also a certain degree of consensus and expectation on the decline of subsidies in the market. In terms of market share, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in January was 19.0%, which was 10.6pct higher than the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 21; The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 16.6%, an increase of 9.8pct compared with January 21. Finally, in 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged, and the subsidy scale will be liberalized from the originally expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, so as to realize the subsidy throughout the whole year. This policy will contribute to the rapid growth of the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022. The passenger Federation predicts that the expected sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 will be 5.5 million, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million, with an annual growth rate of nearly 80%.
Under the current trend of automobile globalization and electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and the short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the ride Federation, the global sales volume in 2022 is expected to reach the level of ten million vehicles, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry chain, as a participant occupying the main share of the world, will fully benefit. Lithium battery industry chain: with the continuous rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power battery may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profit repair. The relevant targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . Lithium battery material industry chain suggests paying attention to enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: cathode materials suggest paying attention to lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Related subjects of negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related targets of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Lithium battery accessories are recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide in the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with first mover and integrated advantages in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . The lithium resources sector suggests paying attention to the leaders with high self-sufficiency rate and high certainty of future capacity. The relevant targets include: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) .
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. We believe that this document is good for the scenery new energy sector first. The notice proposes to organize and implement the special action for the innovative development of photovoltaic industry, implement the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases in desert Gobi desert areas, encourage the development of distributed photovoltaic in the Middle East, promote the development of offshore wind power in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong, and drive the investment in Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery and wind power equipment industry chain. The carbon peak and carbon neutralization policies support the long-term growth potential of photovoltaic, and the basic market is solid. The dual carbon goal and the 14th five year plan support the huge demand for photovoltaic installation and help the stable growth of photovoltaic installation.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches increased steadily last week, and the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers is expected to guide the cost downward and promote the downstream installation demand; Under the background of China’s gradual liberalization of electricity price control, it is expected that the profitability of distributed photovoltaic investment will increase. The superposition policy will guide the whole county to promote the construction of distributed photovoltaic. In the future, distributed projects will still account for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022. In the medium and long term, “double carbon” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025. The goal is clear. New energy such as photovoltaic will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities in component links that benefit from the decline of raw material prices and the expected recovery of profits, including Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; Related targets of distributed photovoltaic project construction: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
In the short term, the parity offshore wind power in January 2022 is faster than expected, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subjects with cost advantage and core competitiveness of Technology: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) .
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
