Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 4651.24 points, up 1.1% in a week; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3490.76, up 0.8% in a week. Among CITIC’s 30 primary industries, nonferrous metals, medicine, power equipment and new energy sectors performed better last week, with the machinery industry rising by 2.0%, ranking 13th. In terms of molecular industries, the top five in the machinery industry last week were machine tool equipment (+ 12.8%), mining and metallurgy equipment (+ 8.3%), photovoltaic machinery (+ 7.9%), laser processing equipment (+ 6.3%) and transportation equipment (+ 4.5%), with the largest decline in testing equipment (- 0.6%).
[key information] on February 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology released “China’s photovoltaic industry aims at high-quality development in 2021 and achieves a good start in the 14th five year plan”. In 2021, based on carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the national photovoltaic industry will seize the development opportunities of the industry, overcome the adverse effects of repeated global epidemics, severe economic situation and international trade barriers, continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, accelerate the innovation and upgrading of industrial intelligence, improve the overall operation of the industry, and achieve a good start in the 14th five year plan, The whole industry achieved steady growth. The supply chain of the national photovoltaic industry chain remained generally safe and stable. The annual output of polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery and module reached 505000 tons, 227gw, 198gw and 182 GW respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9% and 46.1% respectively. （ CPIA）
[Key announcement] 1) Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) : the company achieved an operating revenue of 2981.3268 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 31.21% over the same period of last year; The operating profit was 566287900 yuan, an increase of 31.82% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 486773000 yuan, an increase of 34.05% over the same period of last year; 2) Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) : Shuangliang silicon materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed the single crystal silicon wafer procurement framework contract with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) on February 14, 2022, which stipulates that the buyer expects to purchase 1.892 billion single crystal silicon wafers from the seller from 2022 to 2024, and the total sales amount from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 15.95 billion yuan (including tax).
[this week’s view] the industry aims at carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and the whole industry has achieved steady growth in output and accelerated technological iteration. As the global climate problem becomes more and more serious, the demand of photovoltaic market continues to increase. In 2021, the industry will be based on carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and the whole industry will achieve steady growth in output and accelerated technological iteration. The national photovoltaic industry chain and supply chain remained generally safe and stable. The annual output of polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery and module reached 505000 tons, 227gw, 198gw and 182gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9% and 46.1% respectively; The polysilicon index of mainstream enterprises has been continuously improved to meet the demand of n-type battery, and the large-size and thin-chip technology of silicon wafer has accelerated progress; The battery efficiency reached a new high. The mass production efficiency of p-type perc battery reached 23.1%, the experimental efficiency of n-type TOPCON battery exceeded 25.4%, and the mass production speed of hjt battery was accelerated.
In 2022, China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutralization will continue to be actively promoted, the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation bases will be accelerated, and “the whole county will promote” distributed photovoltaic and intelligent photovoltaic to enter a new stage of rapid development. On February 7, the State Administration of Taxation issued the notice on the work arrangement of energy and resource conservation and ecological environment protection of public institutions in 2022, pointing out the need to fully implement the work related to energy conservation and carbon reduction. First, promote the substitution of renewable energy and promote the use of energy technologies such as Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , geothermal energy and biomass energy according to local conditions; Second, implement green transformation. Promote the energy-saving transformation of photovoltaic, heating, lighting and other energy consumption systems and facilities and equipment in all regions, departments and existing buildings of UNESCO health and sports system. The 14th five year plan for renewable energy development in various regions is being issued one after another. From municipal planning to provincial overall planning, 10 billion and 100 billion industrial manufacturing plans are coming out. In addition, some regions are facing new changes under the stimulation of project indicators and supporting industrial manufacturing. The industry expects the new scale of distributed photovoltaic to reach 60GW.
The positive signals of the industry continue to be released, and the internal competition in the distributed photovoltaic industry intensifies. With the continuous promotion of the “whole county promotion” distributed photovoltaic policy, the expected scale of the industry continues to expand, and the pace of industry expansion is accelerated. In addition to the traditional main force of private enterprises, central enterprises and cross-border investors are engaged in food sharing cake. Because of the periodic contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain, the shortage of inverter chips and the intensification of competition in the industry, we believe that resources tend to concentrate on the leading enterprises in the industry with rich experience and abundant funds.
Investment advice
Photovoltaic industry related {30072316} 300754}.
Risk tips
The macro growth rate is lower than expected, the risk of global epidemic spread, the decline of Chinese market demand and policy changes.
