Event:
Recently, China Automobile Association released automobile production and sales data in January 2022.
Comments:
In January, automobile production and sales improved year-on-year, and the share of independent brands increased. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively. The output increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the sales increased by 0.9% year-on-year. The output growth rate was positive for two consecutive months, and the sales volume changed from negative to positive compared with the previous month; Decreased by 16.7% and 9.2% month on month respectively. In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of passenger cars in January were 2.077 million and 2.186 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% and 6.7% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales was positive for two consecutive months, with a month on month decrease of 17.81% and 9.74% respectively. The continuous improvement of chip supply has improved the year-on-year data of automobile production and sales, and the month on month decline of production and sales in January is affected by the Spring Festival. In January, 290000 luxury cars were retailed, with a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month on month increase of 18%; The retail sales of independent brands reached 940000, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month on month increase of 1%; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 860000 vehicles, down 17% year-on-year and 7% month on month. In January, the retail share of independent brands in China was 45.5%, up 6.4pct year-on-year; Compared with 2021, the share increased by 4.5pct. In January, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 110000 units month on month, and the dealer’s inventory coefficient was 1.46, which was basically the same as last month and still below the warning line.
In January, new energy vehicles maintained a high growth momentum year-on-year. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, and a month on month decrease of 12.74% and 18.83% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 437000 and 419000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, and a month on month decrease of 10.45% and 15.86% respectively. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17%, and that of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.2%. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 31.4%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles is 10.2%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 2.5%.
Diversification of new energy passenger vehicle market. In January, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) sold 455600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13.02%, including 72000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.54%; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the sales volume was 237200, with a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, including 19100 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 115.21%; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) sales volume was 111800, a year-on-year decrease of 19.59%, including 13800 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) the sales volume was 277200, with a year-on-year increase of 10.03%. Among the new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January was 93200, a year-on-year increase of 361.73%; Tesla China sold 59800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 286.5%; Xiaopeng and ideal sales volume maintained high-speed growth, with a year-on-year increase of more than doubled. Weilai’s growth rate was relatively backward, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%; Nezha, Zero run and other second tier new forces accelerated to catch up, with a year-on-year increase of more than four times. North South Volkswagen sold 13700 new energy vehicles, accounting for 59% of the mainstream joint venture.
Investment suggestion: in January, automobile production and sales increased slightly year-on-year, with a decline month on month. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, it is in line with expectations. Local governments have actively introduced policies related to steady growth to support the relative stability of market demand, the continuous improvement of superimposed chip supply, the overall recovery of automobile market production and sales, and Q1 automobile production and sales are expected to achieve moderate growth. At present, the channel inventory is still at a low level, and dealers have a good demand for replenishment of inventory, which will drive the demand for parts and components to continue to repair. In terms of new energy vehicles, the production and sales volume continued the trend of rapid development in January. With the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, the prices of some models have increased, and the impact on orders remains to be seen. However, the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy driven to market driven, and it is expected to maintain a high growth momentum in 2022. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after improved chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) (000030).
Risk tips: the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the production and sales of cars are less than expected, the iteration of new technology reform, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices, the intensification of market competition, the safety risk of electric vehicles, etc.
