Industry update
China: the epidemic situation in Hong Kong has been repeated, and China has begun to deploy sequential immunization. On February 19, the press conference announced that with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. Since February, the number of newly confirmed cases in Hong Kong has increased significantly since February, and the number of newly confirmed cases has reached more than 500 since this week.
The overseas covid-19 epidemic continued to repeat, and new cases began to callback. The global new cases began to callback at the end of January, the number of hospitalized patients decreased accordingly, and the number of deaths increased laggardly, but the mortality remained within 1%. The global vaccination rate rose to 62%, and the average vaccination rate of booster injection was close to 15%. The proportion of Omicron in the world has risen to more than 90%, which is the mainstream strain at present.
Zhou viewpoint update
The normalization of the epidemic situation and the expectation of influenza are optimistic about the volume of oral covid-19 drugs. Vaccine, neutralizing antibody and oral covid-19 drugs work together to normalize the epidemic and influenza. Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs. A number of domestic and foreign oral covid-19 drugs are about to enter the mass production stage: ① the original research supply chain continues to increase the supply chain; ② Through the equity grant of MPP platform, generic pharmaceutical enterprises and supply chain enterprises obtain the rights and interests of generic pharmaceutical production and sales; ③ The layout of covid-19 oral drugs in China is rich, and the research and development is gradually promoted
Update of innovative drugs: this week, 17 innovative drugs were approved for clinical trials for the first time, and no innovative drugs were approved for listing for the first time. Continue to be optimistic about the direction of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation, including differentiated innovation, innovative manufacturing and innovative going to sea.
Innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain (CXO) update: the fundamentals of CXO sector are still strong. In 2022 and the next 3-5 years, CXO is still the best subdivision direction of the pharmaceutical sector in terms of medium-term bearing, sustainability and long-term logic. The core driving factors are: overseas industrial transfer, industrial upgrading, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation rise, etc. CXO sector has strong growth and certainty. In the long run, it should enjoy a certain valuation premium. The valuation of leading companies in the sector has entered the bottom range, and the allocation cost performance is high. In terms of market sentiment, it continues to pick up. We expect that with the continuous disclosure of the annual report in March and the update of the business situation in the first quarter, the market sentiment will further pick up.
Update of API sector: the API sector continues to promote the capacity construction of intermediates and APIs, preparations and cdmo projects. Under the background of the continuous support of the 14th five year plan for pharmaceutical industry development for API, the performance of relevant enterprises is expected to improve steadily, and the profitability is expected to improve continuously in 2022 (the price of upstream raw materials, exchange rate and freight rise in 2021, and the profit margin fluctuates).
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream supply chain: focus on the investment opportunities in the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including subdivided fields such as equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) .
Risk tips
19. The risk of product development is lower than the government’s expectation, and the risk of product development is lower than the government’s expectation, and the risk of product order development and sales is lower than the expected risk.
