Industry Review
During the reporting period, the pharmaceutical and biological industry index increased by 1.98%, ranking 24th among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (1.92%). From the perspective of sub industries, among the three-level pharmaceutical and biological industries, medical R & D outsourcing and other biological products fell, with a decline of 2.52% and 0.09% respectively; Vaccines, hospitals and in vitro diagnostics were among the top gainers, with increases of 8.60%, 7.46% and 4.16% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of February 18, 2022, the PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) of the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 29.11x (28.91x in the previous period), lower than the negative double standard deviation. The PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) of API, chemical agents, traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, vaccines, other biological products, pharmaceutical circulation, offline pharmacies, medical equipment, medical consumables, in vitro diagnosis, diagnostic services, medical R & D outsourcing, hospitals and other medical services in Shenwan tertiary industry were 34.73x, 29.50x, 29.63x, 34.40x, 28.80x, 25.56x, respectively 12.06x、29.74x、43.06x、16.69x、19.53x、18.78x、58.72x、69.78x、81.15x。
During the reporting period, the shareholders of 34 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industries in the two cities reduced their net holdings by 1.711 billion yuan. Among them, 10 increased their holdings by 73 million yuan and 24 reduced their holdings by 1.785 billion yuan.
As of February 20, 2022, 212 of the 387 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry we tracked have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, the number of companies whose performance forecast types are pre increase, slight increase and turnaround is 84 / 20 / 26 respectively; There are 89 companies with the lower limit of forecast net profit growth equal to or exceeding 30% and positive net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020.
Important industry information
Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug paxlovid import registration was approved with emergency conditions
The State Food and Drug Administration held a working meeting on deepening the national special rectification action on drug safety
The State Information Office held a regular briefing on the policy of the State Council on deepening the reform of centralized procurement of drugs and high-value medical consumables
Investment suggestions:
Deepening the reform of centralized procurement of drugs and high-value medical consumables, the regular policy briefing of the State Council was successfully held, and the reform of centralized procurement has entered a new stage of normalization and institutionalization. In the future, quality and cost control will still be the main theme of pharmaceutical policy.
During the reporting period, the valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry sector is still significantly lower than the industry average, slightly lower than the negative standard deviation level of the industry. The valuation is at the bottom of history. At present, the investment value of the industry is prominent. We suggest increasing the allocation proportion of the industry and paying attention to the investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 is imminent, Pay attention to the high-quality targets with high growth or higher than expected performance in the annual report and the first quarterly report; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state's determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Risk tips:
The performance release of medical insurance negotiation varieties is less than expected; Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; Policy uncertainty.
