Aviation: the aircraft fleet of civil aviation increased by 4.5% in 21 years, and the demand of the three major airlines recovered to 50% in 19 years. ① Supply: in January, five Airlines introduced a total of 1 aircraft, and the changes in the size of China Southern Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn and Jixiang aircraft fleets were – 1 / 0 / – 1 / + 2 / + 1 respectively. In January, ask of the three major airlines increased by + 10% year-on-year, and ask recovered to 55% in 19 years (mom + 7pp). ② Demand: in January, the RPK of the three major airlines increased by + 7% year-on-year, recovering to 41% in the same period of 19 years (mom + 4pp). Air China Limited(601111) RPK recovered to 36% of the same period in 19 years (mom + 2PP). The RPK of private airlines in spring and autumn / auspicious January recovered to 92 / 66% in the same period of 19 years respectively. ③ Passenger occupancy rate: Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 70.81% (+ 0.64pp), Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 62.5% (- 4.77pp), and three airlines 59.95% (- 1.52pp). ④ Oil remittance: the oil distribution center was close to $90 in the first quarter. ⑤ Flight volume: in February, the average daily flight volume of w3w4 was 11000, a year-on-year increase of + 101%. ⑥ Valuation: as of February 2022, the market value of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) single machine is 133% / 101% / 116% / 103% / 115% respectively in the same period of 19 years.
Tax exemption: in 22 years, the sales volume of Hainan Department of Commerce has reached nearly 10 billion, the tax exemption of outlying islands during the Spring Festival is 1.9 billion, and the single day sales volume on February 3 is 370 million. There were 57.83 million overnight tourists in Hainan in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, 71% of the same period in 19 years. In 21 years, the passenger throughput of Meilan Airport was 17.52 million, about 72% of that in 19 years. As of February 13, the sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands had reached 9.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%; Since February, the average daily sales have exceeded 300 million. As of February, the number of duty-free store brands has exceeded 730, dominated by fragrance, and the share of boutique products has gradually increased. Tax free sales in South Korea reached US $15.57 billion in 21 years, recovering to 73% in 19 years, of which foreigners accounted for more than 95%. The epidemic caused the number of consumers to decline by 37% year-on-year, and the customer unit price increased by 86% to support the overall performance.
Hotels: driven by ADR, RevPAR increased by 4% year-on-year in January, and the new opening of high-end hotels reached a record high in 21 years. In January 22, the supply-demand gap increased slightly by 3% year-on-year, the growth rate of supply-demand gap slowed down, the overall room revenue increased by 8% year-on-year, and the room revenue below the second tier accounted for 79% of the overall medium and high-end economy. From the operating data, the overall OCC fell to 42% in January, and ADR increased by 7% year-on-year in that month, driving RevPAR to increase by 4% to 172 yuan, recovering to 60% in 19 years. The overall expectation of the hotel market in 21 years is relatively pessimistic, and the industry confidence increased slightly in the first quarter of 2022. The high-end hotel market expanded against the trend, with 200 new stores opening in 21 years, a record high; In January of 22, 42 companies were newly signed, continuously developing medium and high-end, focusing on the vacation business travel sector.
Investment strategy:
① aviation: the passenger flow of civil aviation in 22 years is expected to recover to 75 ~ 85% (year-on-year + 20%) in 19 years. The recovery rhythm is low before and high after. Pay attention to the transition period from operation inflection point to performance inflection point. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet size in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand in the same period is 5.9%. Civil aviation will usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term; If the international line is liberalized at the end of the year, the daily utilization rate of aircraft will be effectively improved and the turnover efficiency will be greatly improved. At that time, the profitability of the airline company will have great room for improvement. The market-oriented reform of air fares has continued to deepen, the production capacity of first tier airports has expanded, the profit structure of civil aviation has been optimized, and the volume and price of high-quality routes have increased simultaneously, opening up room for single machine profits. Private airlines expanded significantly during the epidemic period. Through fine operation, it is expected to convert the fleet size and time resources into operating performance when the travel demand returns to normal. At the current time, we mainly recommend Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . At the same time, we are also optimistic about the high performance elasticity of the three airlines in the recovery cycle.
② tax exemption: the recovery of passenger transport will drive the optimization of tax-free passenger flow structure and the improvement of gross profit margin in Hainan, and look for more than expected opportunities for the tax-free sector in 22 years. The epidemic situation promotes the restructuring of the tax-free industry, and the bargaining power of channels is highly related to the flow and resilience; Under the guidance of scale, the absolute value of revenue and profit is more important than the net interest rate for duty-free businesses in Hainan. In the future, it can be seen that the category structure will shift from incense and chemical to high-quality products with higher customer unit price; The current passive price war in the outlying island duty-free market helps to improve the global price competitiveness of Hainan duty-free. We are optimistic that Hainan duty-free will still maintain a high growth after the recovery of international traffic. We recommend Meilan Airport, which has the resonance between production capacity and demand cycle.
③ Hotels: the medium and high-end are upgraded into the second half, and the products produced by differentiation are purchased α。 The epidemic situation has accelerated the clearance of industries, and the chain rate has increased significantly (26 → 31%), but there is still room compared with 70% in the United States; During the epidemic period, the wine management group expanded against the trend and concentrated its share to the head, which helps to standardize the supply of the industry; The head company upgraded to medium and high-end, optimized the existing product structure, improved the overall profitability, overweight and light assets, and weakened the cyclical fluctuation. In the post epidemic period, the hotel industry is expected to start the revenue upward cycle driven by house prices under the new pattern: at the current time point, we mainly recommend the target Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) of high-end resort hotels / medium and high-end hotels. We are optimistic about the performance flexibility of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) with the highest proportion of medium and high-end hotels after brand integration, and recommend Huazhu group, a private wine management leader with excellent operation ability..
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macroeconomic growth and the repeated epidemic in a large area have seriously affected the travel demand and the safe operation risk of the aviation industry.
