Event: according to the fund’s 2021q4 quarterly report data, we continue to track the fund’s heavy position Holdings under the caliber of “common stock type + partial stock hybrid + flexible allocation type”. Suppressed by the slowdown of economic growth and pessimistic expectations of risk exposure of real estate enterprises, the willingness of institutional allocation of the banking sector was low in the fourth quarter of last year. Specific comments are as follows:
The proportion of banks held by institutions with heavy positions decreased for three consecutive quarters, and the proportion of 4q21 was 3.13%. The index continued to decline, which was more consistent with the deterioration of previous market expectations. The slowdown of economic growth in 2021 coexists with the dual pressure of risk exposure of real estate enterprises, which leads to the continuous pessimism of the market on the banking sector.
From a vertical comparison, the proportion of banks held by institutions with heavy positions is at a historically low level, and the downward space is limited. The lower value in recent years is 1.82% of 2q20, which mainly reflects the highly uncertain epidemic situation and economic trend at that time, as well as the policy expectation of encouraging banks to transfer profits from top to bottom. We believe that the current proportion of heavy positions of institutions is only slightly higher than that of 2q20, but the uncertainty of the current macro environment is significantly better than that of 2q20, and there is limited room for further downward.
In terms of horizontal comparison, the valuation of the banking sector is the lowest among the sectors with a downward proportion of heavy positions held by 4q21 institutions. Among other sectors with reduced allocation, medicine, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical industries have high valuation or large cumulative increase in the whole year. We believe that the banking sector is very cost-effective from the perspective of pb-roe, and the probability of further allocation reduction is small.
The proportion of heavyweight stocks in the banking sector declined as a whole, and the proportion of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) among the top five heavyweight stocks rose against the trend. From the perspective of individual stocks with heavy positions in banks, the top five bank stocks held by institutions with heavy positions are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) . It reflects the market’s recognition of leading targets with strategic leadership and strong performance stability, as well as undervalued and performance flexible banks. The top five heavyweight stocks accounted for 2.69% in total, down 0.37pct from the end of the third quarter. Among them, the positions held by China Merchants Bank, Ping An, Societe Generale and Hangzhou decreased by 0.22pct, 0.12pct, 0.13pct and 0.05pct to 1.14%, 0.34%, 0.21% and 0.12% month on month respectively. The proportion of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) positions increased month on month, up 0.15pct to 0.88% from the end of the third quarter. It reflects the landing of the allotment in the fourth quarter, consolidating the growth momentum of the future asset side, and the suppression of short-term valuation was lifted.
Investment strategy: judging from the heavy positions held by institutions in the banking sector and individual stocks in the fourth quarter, there is limited room for further allocation reduction. Since the beginning of the year, driven by the three factors of steady growth policy, correction of real estate regulation policy and stable and upward performance, the valuation of the banking sector has begun to repair. At this stage, the valuation (0.67 times static Pb) and the proportion of institutional positions are still at a historically low level. It is expected that the follow-up high-quality banks are expected to achieve better share price performance. It is recommended to select banks with first mover advantages in the field of wealth management, such as customer base, sales channels and product service system (such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), and high-quality banks with location advantages and market-oriented system and mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
