\u3000\u3000 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (600989)
The energy consumption of raw materials is gradually falling to the ground & the price of coal is re limited, and the green hydrogen faucet is arranged for carbon neutralization. Maintain “buy” rating
The central economic work conference made it clear that the energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the dual control of energy consumption. The guiding price of the national development and Reform Commission requires that the price of power coal pit mouth shall not exceed 700 yuan / ton and the port price shall not exceed 900 yuan / ton. The policy is favorable for the development of coal chemical industry. The coal price is limited by the policy. Under the high oil price, the price difference between products and raw coal increases and widens the profit space. Coal chemical industry is coupled with “green hydrogen” and “green oxygen”. The company is expected to continue to benefit under the background of carbon neutralization. As the leader of coal chemical industry and “green hydrogen”, its performance is expected to grow steadily. Considering that the 3 million T / a coking polygeneration project was put into operation later than previously expected, we lowered the profit forecast and expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.13/80.5/109.0 (the previous value of 7.17 / 85.2 / 11.2) billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 54.2% / 12.9% / 35.4%; EPS is 0.97/1.10/1.49 yuan respectively (the previous value is 0.98/1.16/1.50), corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 17.4/15.4/11.4 times. The company steadily expanded its coking and olefin production capacity, accelerated the layout of hydrogen installation, was optimistic about the long-term growth potential and maintained the “buy” rating.
The new raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the olefin project in Inner Mongolia is expected to accelerate
On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference pointed out that we should focus on the clean and efficient utilization of coal based on the basic national conditions of coal, and the use of new raw materials should not be included in the total energy consumption control. On January 21, 2022, Henan implemented the energy consumption “double control” management change policy to support the construction of major projects. We infer that Inner Mongolia and other high energy consuming provinces will follow up the implementation. In addition, four modern coal chemical industry demonstration zones are planned nationwide, of which Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) is ranked, and the Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) Inner Mongolia 4 million T / a coal to olefin project is located in the Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) demonstration zone, which benefits the most, and the project is expected to accelerate. Compared with the current 1.2 million T / a coal to olefin capacity, the Inner Mongolia project is expected to boost the performance after it is put into operation.
The coal price is limited while the oil price remains high, and the cost advantage improves the profitability
On January 28, 2022, the guidance price of the national development and Reform Commission required that the entrance price of power coal pit should not exceed 700 yuan / ton and the port price should not exceed 900 yuan / ton. Major coal enterprises have implemented it one after another, and the price of cctd5500 card has dropped to less than 900 yuan / ton. As of February 18, 2022, Brent crude oil was reported at US $93.54/barrel, and the oil price remained high. The olefin products were priced by the oil head, and the probability remained high. Due to policy restrictions on coal price, the cost of raw coal purchased by the company will decrease significantly, the price difference between olefin products and raw coal will increase, the cost advantage is prominent, and the profitability is expected to be further improved in the future.
Coal chemical industry is coupled with green hydrogen and takes the lead in carbon neutralization
After the national Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen production energy storage and application demonstration project of the company is put into operation, the annual output of 240 million standard cubic meters of “green hydrogen” and 120 million standard cubic meters of “green oxygen” can be saved. The project can save 380000 tons of coal per year and reduce 660000 tons of carbon dioxide per year. “Green hydrogen” can be directly used to produce methanol from syngas and improve the utilization efficiency of raw coal. “Green oxygen” can replace oxygen in air separation unit and reduce coal consumption. Coal chemical industry is coupled with “green hydrogen” and “green oxygen”, with obvious emission reduction and efficiency increase. The follow-up company will produce green hydrogen at a growth rate of 300 million standard cubic meters / year, increase and reduce 5% of the total carbon emission of chemical plants every year, and strive to take the lead in realizing enterprise carbon neutralization in 20 years.
Risk tips: the risk of falling product prices, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the risk of new projects falling short of expectations
