\u3000\u3000 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496)
Key points supporting rating
The performance forecast achieved high growth. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the revenue will exceed 4 billion yuan (with an increase of more than 50%) and the net profit will be 640 ~ 680 million yuan (+ 44.3 ~ 53.3%, median 660 million, with an increase of 48.8%). In the fourth quarter, the revenue exceeded 1.3 billion yuan (an increase of nearly 60% at the same time), with a quarter on quarter growth of more than 35%. Excluding the amortization expense of intangible assets related to M & A (about 54 million) and the increment of equity incentive expense (about 32 million), the annual net profit is expected to increase by 68% (calculated according to the median). The downstream prosperity of many businesses of the company is high, the explosive power of smart car business continues for many quarters, the Internet of things is expected to exceed expectations again, and the mobile phone business maintains steady growth.
The value of intelligent driving track continues to improve. Recently, baidu acquired gelubo technology, which focuses on automobile intelligent driving system, and continued to overweight the intelligent driving track. The company also established an automatic driving platform last year. The company has entered the field of intelligent driving and vehicle computing platform. Relying on the inherent advantages of software ability, it plans the prosperous track in advance. It is expected to further consolidate the company’s advantageous position in the field of automobile software by launching an intelligent operating system under the framework of central computing platform.
The customer base of key points is expected to expand. Recently, the company and Byd Company Limited(002594) conducted in-depth exchanges around the development of cockpit products and automatic driving schemes, and deeply understood the advantages and strategic planning of both sides, so as to establish a foundation for follow-up cooperation in many aspects. The company has served many vehicle manufacturers and Tier1 customers. With the leading grinding maturity of product technology and the accumulation of industry experience, the company has greater opportunities to break through more customers in the follow-up.
Valuation
It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 670 million, 970 million and 1.35 billion, and EPS is expected to be RMB 157 million, RMB 229 million and RMB 318 million (slightly revised up by 2 ~ 4% due to slightly higher performance than expected), corresponding to PE of 85x, 58x and 42x. The company is the leader of intelligent operating system. Driven by the intelligent automobile business, it has achieved rapid growth year after year. The valuation is and will continue to digest rapidly and maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The development of downstream customers is less than expected; The R & D progress is less than expected
