\u3000\u3000 Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) (300428)
Event: Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) announced the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft). The company plans to grant a total of no more than 28.55 million shares to incentive objects, accounting for about 4.63% of the total share capital of the company at the time of announcement. Among them, 23 million shares were granted for the first time and 5.55 million shares were reserved for grant, with the grant price of 11.09 yuan / share.
Comments:
The incentive plan stimulates enthusiasm and the company's development has entered the fast lane. The conditions for awarding the incentive plan are that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 600 million, 720 million and 864 million, with an average annual growth rate of 20%. Considering the continuous volume of new businesses in the future, the actual performance of the company has a long-term vision to exceed the performance promised by the incentive unlocking. With the implementation of incentive measures, the development of the company is expected to enter the fast lane. At the same time, the incentive personnel also include three foreign senior managers. The implementation of the plan is conducive to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees and promote the construction and stability of the company's core talent team.
Four arrows at once, depicting the future growth curve of the company.
(1) recycled cast aluminum alloy sector: the proportion of raw material end recycled aluminum continues to increase, and product end heat-free alloy has become a star product.
The company is the leader of recycled aluminum casting alloy, with continuous expansion of production capacity. In 2020, the company's output of cast aluminum alloy was 745400 tons, of which recycled aluminum accounted for 62%, reaching 461600 tons. In recent years, based on the utilization of recycled aluminum resources in 18 alloy factories in China, the company has accelerated the recycling and capacity construction of recycled aluminum in Thailand and Mexico, realized the double cycle development of recycled aluminum resources in China and abroad, and improved the overseas waste aluminum recycling system, which can effectively reduce the cost of raw materials. Compared with the production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum, each ton of recycled aluminum can reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide by about 11 tons. Driven by the national strategy of 30 / 60 double carbon target, the recycled aluminum industry has ushered in major development opportunities, and the company will fully benefit as a leader of recycled aluminum.
Heat free alloy is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company. Benefit from new energy vehicles
With the general trend of integrated die casting, the market of heat-free alloy is expected to open. The company has a deep technical accumulation in research and development for many years. Its products have applied for patents and have strong clamping advantages. At present, the heat-free alloy developed by the company has been commercialized and applied, successfully breaking the monopoly of overseas manufacturers such as Alcoa and rheinfeld, Germany. According to the calculation of 200kg single vehicle, the market of heat-free alloy is expected to reach 4 / 8 million tons in 2025 / 2030, with a corresponding market scale of 1000 / 2000 and a broad market space.
(2) aluminum alloy wheel sector: structural adjustment and new energy.
At present, the company's own production capacity of wheels is 20 million / year, and 30 million / year is planned in the future; The production capacity of wheel mould is 1000 sets / year, and the design and planning production capacity is 2000 sets / year. Actively promote the adjustment of product structure, switch to large-scale and high-end products, and switch to supporting new energy vehicles and commercial vehicles, so as to improve the profitability of aluminum alloy wheel products. It is preliminarily estimated that the company's wheels account for more than 10% of new energy vehicles, and have entered the supply chain of Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima and other new energy vehicle suppliers.
(3) functional master alloy sector: the production capacity is gradually implemented and the layout of high-end products.
Functional master alloys are mainly used in the deep processing industry of aluminum, and the metal properties are changed by adding functional master alloys. At present, the company is a global leader. On the basis of the existing capacity of 70000 tons, it is building a high-end grain refiner production line with an annual output of 25000 tons and an aluminum based rare earth master alloy project with an annual output of 50000 tons in Baotou. In addition, the company distributes aerospace grade special master alloys and other high value-added products. In 2020, the company sold 106.07 tons of special master alloys and realized a gross profit of 8.0149 million yuan.
(4) layout new lithium battery materials to form the fourth pole of growth.
One of the raw materials of functional master alloy materials is the by-product of lithium hexafluorophosphate production. The aluminum based functional master alloy products produced by the company, especially high-end grain refiner, metal purification, flux and other products, have a large demand for fluoride raw materials such as potassium fluoroborate, potassium fluorotitanate, potassium fluorozirconate and potassium fluosilicate every year. Relying on its industrial advantages for many years, the company plans to build a new energy lithium battery new material project in Shandong, including 18000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and 8000 tons of lithium difluorosulfimide. On the one hand, the company's raw materials can be effectively guaranteed, on the other hand, it can also alleviate the shortage of lithium battery materials for new energy vehicle customers. The profitability of new projects is strong and is expected to form the fourth pole of the company's performance growth.
Maintain the "buy" rating, and the target price is 46.8 yuan. We believe that the business layout of the company is reasonable,
The growth trend is relatively clear. This incentive plan is of great significance, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of the management and backbone, at the right time, and drive the company into a period of rapid growth. Overall, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 483 / 795 / 1207 million yuan respectively, giving a target market value of 30 billion yuan in the next 12 months, corresponding to about 25 times of PE in 2023. Considering the dilution of equity incentive, the corresponding target price is 46.8 yuan, with 110% space compared with the closing price of 22.27 yuan on February 21, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the project implementation progress is less than expected; The demand for new energy is less than expected.
