\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Event overview
1) the company issued a performance express, which realized an operating revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 84.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.24%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.47%.
2) the company signed the purchase contract for reduction furnace of Inner Mongolia Daquan new energy Co., Ltd. with Inner Mongolia Daquan new energy Co., Ltd. on February 21, 2022. The subject matter of the contract is multi rod polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace and its parts and special tools, with a contract amount of 556 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
The blowout of orders for energy saving and water saving and new energy equipment business has driven the high growth of the company's performance
1) energy saving and water saving business: benefiting from the industrial development opportunities brought by the "double carbon" policy, the company's traditional advantageous products such as bromine chillers, air coolers and heat exchangers continue to make efforts. In 2021, the signed and ongoing announcement orders for water saving and energy saving reached 3.209 billion yuan in total.
2) new energy equipment business: benefiting from the capacity expansion of downstream photovoltaic silicon materials, the company's polysilicon reduction furnace and its skid, heat exchanger and a series of new energy equipment orders increased significantly. In 2021, the signed and ongoing announcement equipment orders of polysilicon materials industry reached 1.857 billion yuan. In 2021, the total amount of the above orders reached 5.067 billion yuan, which is conducive to supporting the company's performance.
The sales of large-size silicon wafers are long and full, and the silicon material supply is locked in advance to ensure the mass production of silicon wafers
1) at present, the trend of large-scale silicon wafer is becoming more and more obvious. According to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market share of 182mm + 210mm large-scale photovoltaic silicon wafer will increase from less than 5% in 2020 to nearly 50% in 2021. 210 size silicon wafer cannot be produced by transforming the existing silicon wafer production line below 166 size. The 1600 furnace single crystal furnace purchased by Baotou subsidiary of the company can directly produce 210 silicon wafers, and give consideration to the production of 182 / 166 silicon wafers, meeting the needs of downstream enterprises for large-scale replacement of silicon wafers.
2) since October 2021, the company has successively signed long sales orders with Jiangsu Runyang Yueda, Shanghai aixu, Jiangsu Longheng, Funing atlas, Jiangsu Xinchao and Changzhou Shunfeng (the specific sales price adopts the method of monthly negotiation), indicating that the quality of the company's silicon wafer has been gradually recognized by customers, which is expected to bring great performance flexibility to the company. At the same time, the company signed a five-year polysilicon material purchase contract with Xinjiang Xinte and Jiangsu Zhongneng to ensure the stable supply of silicon materials.
The polysilicon business is expected to continue, or the polysilicon equipment contract is expected to be signed
Since 2022, the company has successively signed reduction furnace equipment contracts with central Xinjiang Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Ningxia crystal new energy materials, Inner Mongolia Daquan new energy, Gansu Guazhou Baofeng silicon materials and other companies, further highlighting the leading position of the company's reduction furnace equipment. With the expansion of downstream silicon material capacity, the company's new energy equipment business is expected to bring thick performance increment to the company.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company's new energy equipment business is full and the silicon wafer business continues to develop well, and referring to the performance express, we raised the forecast of the company's revenue of 3.063/71.36/10.917 billion yuan in 21-23 years to 3.830/85.95/13.035 billion yuan; Raise the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 311 / 614 / 947 million from 21 to 23 to RMB 312 / 711 / 1215 million; Increase eps0.00 in 21-23 years The forecast of 19 / 0.38/0.58 yuan is 0.19/0.44/0.75 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 11.15 yuan / share on February 21, 2022, and the PE of 21-23 years is 51 / 22 / 13 times respectively. We maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected, the progress of silicon wafer project is less than expected, and the order growth of energy-saving and water-saving business is less than expected.
