\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Event summary:
On the evening of February 18, it was announced that the personnel adjustment of the group and the joint stock company: Li Shuguang will no longer serve as a director of the company and a subordinate of the board of directors; Zeng Congqin served as secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group and secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the joint stock company; Zou Tao no longer holds the post of director, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company, but changes to Deputy Secretary of the Party committee and general manager of the group; Jiang Wenge served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company.
Personnel reform was finally implemented, and the new and old teams were “seamlessly” connected. The company’s personnel reform has long been expected, and after the implementation, it has alleviated the concerns of some markets about the change of office. The new management has entered Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group for a long time and has a deep understanding of the company and industry. It is expected that the company’s strategy will be continued. During the “1218” Conference on joint construction and sharing last year, a number of product, channel and marketing goals proposed to consolidate the core position of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the single product with a large price of 1000 yuan, promote the breakthrough of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , concentrate on building key brands of series wines, and improve the “1 + N + 2” channel model will continue to be implemented.
Recently, the company’s share price is relatively weak. We think the main concern is that the consumption is depressed in the peak season of the Spring Festival under the pressure of macroeconomic and epidemic prevention. According to the market feedback, the competitive pressure of the Spring Festival in 2022 is mainly concentrated in second tier and below brands, and the overall performance of the head echelon is stable. From the perspective of the company, the cash collection of Dashang is progressing smoothly, the inventory is low and the delivery rhythm is stable, and the performance of the Spring Festival is expected to be stable and make progress. At present, the price of the five Po has risen from 960 yuan / bottle to 970 yuan / bottle in the beginning of the month. With the gradual consumption of Baijiu consumption in the off-season, we expect that the market measures will be implemented one by one, and the efficiency of internal and external management and execution will be further enhanced. There will be room for increase in the price of the liquor, and the price of the channel will be realized.
Since the “second venture”, the company has gradually straightened out its product system, strengthened its channel control ability, and achieved fruitful reform. We expect that under the leadership of the new management, the company will rely on the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) to achieve a smooth breakthrough in the super high-end market and further enhance the brand value. From the perspective of valuation, compared with peers, the current company is relatively undervalued, the stock price has entered a reasonable allocation range, the future valuation can be repaired, and the investment proposal of “buy” can be maintained.
To sum up, it is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 23.94 billion, 28.5 billion and 32.5 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, 19% and 14% respectively. The EPS will be 6.17 yuan, 7.35 yuan and 8.38 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 32 times, 27 times and 24 times respectively.
Risk warning: the terminal dynamic sales are less than expected, and the channel reform is less than expected
