\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, an increase of 84.87% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.24%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 127.47%.
Comments:
Energy and water conservation and polysilicon reduction furnace business orders increased significantly, driving the high growth of the company's performance. Driven by the "double carbon" target policy, the company's orders for energy-saving and water-saving products have increased significantly driven by customers' demand for energy conservation and emission reduction; At the same time, the company's polysilicon reduction furnace business benefited from the expansion of photovoltaic silicon material, and the orders of polysilicon reduction furnace, its skid, heat exchanger and a series of new energy equipment increased significantly. In addition, the company's large-size monocrystalline silicon products have also been produced one after another and achieved part of the sales revenue. It is expected that the sales revenue of monocrystalline silicon products will further increase in 2022, which will promote the company's performance to maintain a rapid growth trend.
Profitability has been significantly improved and is expected to be further improved in the future. In 2021, the company's roe was 13.60%, an increase of 7.48 percentage points compared with 6.12% in 2020, reflecting the significant improvement of the company's profitability. It is expected that with the mass production of the company's monocrystalline silicon wafer business in the future, the scale effect will appear, and the proportion of the company's high gross profit polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace business will increase, and the company's profitability may be further enhanced.
Wait for the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafer to fall and open the second growth curve of the company. The first phase of Baotou monocrystalline silicon project (20GW) of the company is gradually put into operation, and the product quality of large-size monocrystalline silicon wafer has passed the certification of mainstream customers. At present, the company has signed long order purchase agreements for silicon materials with Xinte energy, Zhongneng silicon, Asia silicon and other companies, and has signed long order sales agreements for silicon wafers with many companies such as Runyang Yueda, Longheng new energy, Funing atlas, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) . The upstream silicon material and downstream sales of the company's monocrystalline silicon wafer production are guaranteed, and the landing of production capacity is expected to drive the continuous high growth of the company's performance. In addition, the construction investment of the company's Baotou phase II 20GW large-size monocrystalline silicon wafer project was signed, and the implementation of production capacity in the future will further drive the continuous growth of the company's performance.
The implementation of non-public offering has helped accelerate the production of monocrystalline silicon wafer. On January 11, 2022, the company announced that the non-public offering was approved. The company plans to raise 3.488 billion yuan through non-public offering, and the raised funds are mainly used for 40gw monocrystalline silicon phase I Project (20GW). With the gradual implementation of the company's non-public offering, the company's capital strength will further grow, which will accelerate the implementation of the company's monocrystalline silicon production capacity.
The energy-saving and water-saving business is expected to grow steadily, and the sales of polysilicon reduction furnace products are improving. Under the background of "double carbon" target policy, the demand for energy conservation and consumption reduction will continue to release. National policies will promote high energy consuming industries to continuously promote the transformation of energy conservation and consumption reduction, and benefit energy-saving equipment supply enterprises. The company has the advantages of brand, technology, scale and customer resources in the field of energy-saving and water-saving industry, and has strong market competitiveness, which is expected to benefit significantly. At the same time, with the expansion of polysilicon enterprises, the market demand for polysilicon reduction furnace business is improving, and the company's polysilicon reduction furnace business orders continue to grow, contributing to the growth of the company's revenue and performance.
Maintain the "overweight" rating: the two business segments of the company drive together, and the energy-saving and water-saving business segment contributes to the basic performance, while the photovoltaic new energy business is the main driving force for the future performance growth of the company, which promotes the substantial growth of the company's revenue and performance, and is optimistic about the future growth of the company. Considering the rapid progress of the company's monocrystalline silicon business, which promotes the growth of the company's revenue and performance, the company's profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.830 billion yuan, 6.435 billion yuan and 10.278 billion yuan respectively (3.005 billion yuan, 6.435 billion yuan and 10.278 billion yuan respectively before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 84.86%, 114.15% and 59.71% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 312 million yuan, 598 million yuan and 931 million yuan respectively (276 million yuan, 598 million yuan and 93.1 million yuan respectively before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 127.27%, 117.23% and 55.64% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.19, 0.37 and 0.57 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 58.28, 30.46 and 19.54 yuan respectively.
Risk warning: the project progress is not as expected; The implementation of the policy is not as expected; The expansion of silicon material enterprises is not as expected: the risk of silicon material price decline.
