Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 12th, and SW passenger car PE was in the historical quantile of 95%. SW auto rose 2.1%, outperforming the market by 0.4pct. Except for SW commercial trucks and SW commercial buses, SW passenger cars, SW auto parts and SW auto services are on the rise. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 12th this week, ranking in the middle. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 95% / 93% quantile respectively, and the quantile is + 1PCT / 0pct compared with last week; Last week’s quantile of + 2pc / + 2pc / + 2pc /% respectively. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (if the specific time of this week is not indicated in the full text, it refers to 2022.02.12 ~ 2022.02.19. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail sales fell month on month; Enterprises & channels to the library. According to the caliber of the Travel Association, due to the Spring Festival, the retail and wholesale volume in the first week of February is almost zero, which is difficult to make accurate statistics. Therefore, the average value is taken in one to two weeks. From February 7 to 13, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 26097, with a year-on-year increase of + 13% and a month on month increase of – 57%; In the first two weeks of February, the cumulative average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 26097, with a year-on-year increase of – 33% and a month on month increase of – 56%; From February 7 to 13, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 27618, with a year-on-year increase of + 23% and a month on month decrease of – 47%; In the first two weeks of February, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 27618, with a year-on-year increase of – 20% and a month on month increase of – 49%. The output of narrow passenger cars in January was 2.042 million, up + 9.6% year on year and – 17.1% month on month; The wholesale sales volume was 2.158 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.1% and a month on month increase of – 8.8%; In January, there were 2175800 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 4.11% / – 0.62% respectively. Inventory: in January, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was – 113000, and the channel inventory was – 173000.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (02.14-02.18) was – 2.43% month on month (02.07-02.11), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were – 6.43% / – 0.24% / – 3.62% / – 1.94% / – 2.53% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts section recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
