Zhou viewpoint: focus on value targets benefiting from broad credit
This week, the subject of the wealth management track fell significantly. In addition to the disturbance at the news and transaction level, the pessimism about the future market or the important reason behind the fragility of the stock price, the logic of the track length is still there, and the valuation of the subject fell back to a safe position. At the moment when the market style switches to value, it is recommended to benefit from Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) with wide credit and long logic, and be optimistic about the elastic undervalued insurance leader and undervalued head securities companies on the asset side.
Insurance: the life insurance premium in January was still under pressure, and the improvement of property insurance exceeded expectations
(1) this week, the listed insurance companies disclosed the premium data of January. The total life insurance premiums of the five listed insurance companies were – 0.4% year-on-year (January 2021 + 8.5%), including The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 22.7%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 3.6%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) – 0.8%, {601601601} – 1.1%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) – 5.3%. The new premium is under overall pressure due to the high base, the decline of team size, the weak release of security demand and the advance of the time point of the Spring Festival. The increase of renewal premium fails to fill the decline of new premium. We expect that the new value of each insurance enterprise in the first quarter of 2022 will be in the range of – 20% to – 30% year-on-year. The auto insurance premium in January exceeded expectations. The property insurance premium income of the four listed insurance companies was + 11.9% (January 2021 – 2.5%) year on year, up 10.9pct from + 1.0% in December. The property insurance premiums of each insurance company in January were: PICC Property Insurance + 13.8% (December + 30.4%), CPIC property insurance + 12.7% (December + 7.7%), Zhong’an Online + 12.4% (December – 17.6%), Ping An Property Insurance + 8.2% (December + 14.2%). The year-on-year premium income of the property insurance section was significantly better than our previous expectations, mainly due to the year-on-year higher than expected premium of auto insurance. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in January was + 14.5% year-on-year. The higher than expected premium of auto insurance was due to the optimization of market pattern and the increase of the proportion of new energy vehicles. (2) At present, there is no sign of improvement in the insurance liability side, and the growth of property insurance is expected to exceed expectations. At present, the opportunity is mainly driven by the improvement expectation of the asset side and the transaction style. The recovery of long-term interest rate and the improvement of real estate chain risk drive the expectation of asset side repair. The subject with greater flexibility on the investment side is the main line at this stage, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with greater repair space on the asset side is recommended, Recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) leading in transformation and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Property Insurance and AIA.
Securities companies: the decline of valuation reflects the pessimistic expectation of the market, and the logic of wealth management is still
(1) 22 new equity + mixed funds were established this week, with a scale of 3.9 billion and a single product scale of 180 million. The single product scale was significantly lower than the average of 800 million in the past three months, and the new issuance of funds fell to the freezing point; The net value of partial stock funds rebounded this week, and the partial stock fund index fell 9.8% since the beginning of the year. (2) This week, the target of the wealth management track has fallen greatly. In addition to the disturbance at the news and transaction level, we are not pessimistic about the future market or the important reason behind the weakness of the stock price. At present, we are not pessimistic about the core target of the wealth management track. At present, the valuation has reflected the pessimistic expectation of the market. At the same time, the long logic of wealth management is based on the new rules of asset management, the registration system, the non speculation of housing and housing Based on the long-term trends such as aging and industry transformation, the pressure on the yield of growth stocks and partial stock funds will cause some negative feedback, but it will not change the long-term trend of residents’ wealth migration to net worth and equity assets. (3) At present, securities companies with undervalued head have strong security and both attack and defense. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares).
Combination of beneficial objects
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ;
Insurance: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China property insurance, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , AIA;
Securities companies: China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
